There is growing unease within the leadership of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the presidency over prospects of former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso joining forces with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi ahead of the 2027 election.
Atiku and Obi, who were presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party respectively in the 2023 election, have already collapsed their structures into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in a renewed alliance ahead of the polls.
Emerging media reports indicate that certain influential individuals within and outside the ADC, are mounting pressure on the ex Kano governor to align forces with Atiku and Obi, with a view to presenting a common front formidable enough to challenge the re-election of APC’s President Bola Tinubu.
Reports further indicate that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is among the powerful individuals pressuring Kwankwaso to align forces with the ADC.
Obasanjo is said to have been holding talks with the two former presidential candidates on the possibility of running on a joint ticket on the ADC platform.
The two opposition leaders, have over the years, maintained cordial relationship with the ex president, who still regards them as his mentees.
Kwankwaso also contested in the 2023 presidential election on the ticket of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). The resultant vote splitting among the three opposition candidates had enabled Tinubu win the election with a narrow margin.
THE WHISTLER authoritatively gathered on Sunday, that analyses and projections carried out by APC’s in-house experts, paint a gloomy picture for the ruling party and its candidate in the event of the three opposition figures joining forces in the 2027 poll.
Their projections, it was learnt, are premised on a review of the combined votes scored by Atiku (PDP), Obi (LP) and Kwankwaso (NNPP) in the 2023 presidential election and the number of states in which they defeated Tinubu and his APC.
Going by official records of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the 2023 presidential poll, Tinubu/APC scored a total of 8,794,726 votes; Atiku/PDP – 6,984,520; Obi/LP – 6,101,533; and Kwankwaso/NNPP – 1,496,687.
The total votes scored by the three opposition candidates combined, amounted to 14,582,740, against Tinubu’s 8,794,726.
The numerical difference between the combined votes of the three opposition candidates and Tinubu’s votes, amounted to 5,788,014; a deficit insiders say, is a source of grave concern to the APC.
The ruling party is said to also have every cause to worry, considering how the three top presidential candidates in the 2023 race split the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in three equal parts.
Tinubu won in 12 states, Atiku also won in 12 states, Obi won in 11 states and the FCT, while Kwankwaso took Kano state.
The states won by Tinubu are Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Ondo, Jigawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi, Zamfara, Rivers and Borno.
Atiku won in Osun, Yobe, Katsina, Adamawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Bayelsa, Sokoto, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi and Gombe.
Obi won in Enugu, Lagos, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Edo, Plateau and the FCT. Kwankwaso won in Kano with a very wide margin.
The records show that the three opposition candidates combined, won in 24 states and the FCT, against Tinubu’s 12, prompting an Abuja based chieftain of the ruling party to observe that “the 2023 statistics, obviously, aren’t smiling at the APC.”
Insiders fear that a convergence of the political structures and voter bases of the three leading opposition figures could pose a serious threat to the ruling party’s 2027 electoral prospects.
The prospects of broader opposition cooperation in the months ahead have unsettled APC strategists, particularly in those states in the Northeast and Northwest where Atiku scored the highest votes.
Same goes for the Southeast where Obi won the entire fives states and the South-South where he won in three of the six states in the zone in the last presidential election.
Political analysts note that Atiku still retains deep-rooted structures across the North and parts of the South, while Obi commands a strong following among urban voters, youths and the electorate in the South.
Kwankwaso on the other hand, appears to still have a firm grip on grassroots politics in Kano, as analysts believe that he still enjoys mass appeal through the Kwankwasiyya Movement, which he founded and leads.
The potential tripartite alliance, observers argue, could galvanise a broader national coalition capable of challenging the dominance of the ruling party in 2027 and beyond.
An APC chieftain, who led one of Tinubu’s support groups in 2023, said the party is closely monitoring developments within the opposition camp and that it would respond according at the appropriate time.
“The fear is not just Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku as individuals. It’s about their supporters collapsing their structures into a single platform.
“To be honest, that alliance, if it succeeds, will certainly alter the political equation in ways that could swing the balance against the APC in many states in 2027.
“But we can bank on the fact that their individual ambitions and their desperation for the presidential ticket will eventually tear them apart,” the source who preferred anonymity told THE WHISTLER.
A top APC official, however, dismissed claims of panic within the party, saying the ruling party remained confident of its performance in office and upbeat about the coming election.
“Nobody panics over opposition alliances. They are not new in Nigerian politics. What matters is governance and delivery of democratic dividends and we are focused on that,” he said.
Other insiders however, admit that the ruling party is wary of a possible repeat of the 2015 scenario, when an opposition coalition it galvanised, successfully dislodged President Goodluck Jonathan and his PDP.
Multiple APC sources said on Sunday that the party leadership has not foreclosed the possibilities of striking a working alliance with Kwankwaso, insisting that consultations are still ongoing.
Kwankwaso has given what the APC leaders consider “stringent conditions” for him to join the ruling party, conditions that may require the party to dismantle existing APC structures in Kano to enable him take control.
As opposition consultations continue behind the scenes, the APC is expected to intensify its political outreach and internal realignment to counter any emerging united front.
The prospect of Atiku-Obi-Kwankwaso alignment is already shaping debates on zoning, performance of the Tinubu administration, and the need to strengthen party cohesion ahead of the next electoral contest.
Some party leaders are reportedly urging early reconciliation of aggrieved groups and individuals within the APC, to forestall possible defections that could further embolden the opposition.