IN Nigeria’s political evolution, few issues have carried as much symbolic weight as religious balance at the highest level of power. Although the Constitution makes no provision for religious pairing in leadership selection, the country’s complex social fabric has turned balance – between Christianity and Islam – into an unwritten rule of political survival.
Over time, this delicate arrangement has become one of Nigeria’s most enduring political conventions, shaped how leaders emerge, determined campaign strategies, and influenced how governments are perceived, accepted, or resisted. While the issue is not a constitutional requirement, it remains a powerful tool for managing diversity in a deeply plural society like Nigeria.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2023 victory, achieved on a Muslim-Muslim ticket with Vice President Kashim Shettima, broke a long-standing informal convention in Nigerian politics. While constitutionally permissible, the ticket reopened old fault lines around identity, inclusion, and national cohesion.
As the nation inches toward the 2027 general elections, the question of diversity – particularly religious balance at the highest level of power – has returned to the centre of national debate. The political establishment and the electorate are again asking: will Tinubu recalibrate in 2027 by picking a Christian vice-presidential candidate, and what would such a move mean in the long arc of Nigerian politics?
An Unwritten Rule Born of History
While the issue may not have emerged from abstract idealism, it was forged in response to deep-seated fears of domination. With Islam historically entrenched in the North and Christianity dominant in the South, political leaders quickly realised that concentrating power within one religious bloc could trigger suspicion and instability.
The Second Republic marked Nigeria’s first serious attempt to manage its diversity through deliberate political engineering. Major political parties treated religious balance as a stabilising mechanism. The logic was simple: while elections are won with numbers, legitimacy is sustained with inclusion. A president and vice president of different faiths reassured citizens that no single religious group would monopolise state power.
In 1979, Shehu Shagari’s choice of Dr Alex Ekwueme, a Christian from the South-East, as his vice president was no accident. The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) understood that national acceptance required a balance between North and South, Muslims and Christians.
The pairing helped Shagari broaden his appeal beyond the North and gave his government a sense of national character, even if the administration ultimately collapsed under economic strain and political crisis.
The Fourth Republic: From Obasanjo to Jonathan
When democracy returned in 1999, diversity became even more pronounced as a political necessity. For instance, when Olusegun Obasanjo, a Southern Christian emerged as presidential candidate in 1999, his choice of Atiku Abubakar, a Northern Muslim, immediately broadened the appeal of the ticket.
The logic was clear: after years of military rule dominated by Northern elites, Nigeria needed a ticket that reassured all sides. The Obasanjo–Atiku combination proved electorally potent, winning convincingly in 1999 and again in 2003.
Campaign strategy during this period leaned heavily on symbolism. The campaign messages emphasised unity after years of military rule, and the pairing helped neutralise regional and religious anxieties.
According to analysts, Obasanjo’s acceptance in parts of the North was eased by Atiku’s presence, while Obasanjo himself served as a bridge to the South-West and Christian constituencies. Voting patterns reflected this balance, with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) securing a truly national spread.
The same logic applied in 2007, when Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a Northern Muslim, paired with Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, a Southern Christian from the Niger Delta, as his running mate. The ticket helped neutralise regional grievances, particularly in the oil-producing South-South. After Yar’Adua’s death in 2010, Jonathan’s eventual ascent to the presidency further underscored how diversity arrangements could have long-term consequences beyond elections.
APC, Buhari and the Return of Calculated Balance
The formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013 was itself an exercise in managing diversity. It was a coalition of disparate regional and ideological blocs united primarily by the goal of unseating the PDP.
In 2015, Muhammadu Buhari’s selection of Yemi Osinbajo, a Southern Christian and respected pastor, as his running mate was a calculated political move. According to analysts, the choice was strategic and transformative, achieving a strategic balance.
Osinbajo’s presence softened Buhari’s image in the South-West and among Christian voters nationwide. Campaign messages, emphasised inclusivity, competence, and national unity. The campaign leaned heavily on this balance, presenting the ticket as a bridge across Nigeria’s religious divide.
The religious balance did not replace policy discussions; instead, it created the trust needed for voters to engage with those policies in the first place. The voting pattern that followed showed APC making unprecedented inroads into the South-West, a region that proved decisive to Buhari’s victory.
Beyond elections, religious balance mattered and influences how governments function. A balanced leadership structure can reduce suspicion around appointments, policy priorities, and crisis management. When citizens see themselves reflected at the top, they are more likely to give the government the benefit of doubt, even during difficult periods.
On the flip side, a perceived imbalance tends to attract more scrutiny. Decisions that would typically be seen as standard can start to appear biased, and appointments can become entangled in political and religious interpretations. This situation can hinder effective governance, increase distrust, and divert focus away from meaningful discussions on policy.
Religious balance plays an important role in fostering confidence among individuals. While it may not ensure complete fairness, it certainly helps to ease tensions within national politics. For instance, Osinbajo’s role as acting president during Buhari’s medical absences reassured many Nigerians that power was not overly concentrated in one section of the country.
2023: The Disruption of an Unwritten Rule
For decades, Nigerian politics operated on an unwritten but widely respected convention: religious balance at the pinnacle of power. Presidents and their deputies were deliberately paired across faith lines, not by constitutional fiat but by political necessity.
In 2023, that convention was forcefully shattered when Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from the Southwest (Lagos) choose to run for the office of the president with Senator Kashim Shettima, a Muslim from the Northeast (Borno) under the umbrella of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The decision marked one of the most consequential turning points in Nigeria’s post-1999 political history, reshaping campaign narratives, voter psychology, and debates about national cohesion.
Though the ticket did not violate Nigeria’s Constitution, but it needs to be noted that politics in Nigeria has never been governed by legality alone; it is driven by perception, symbolism, and the management of deep diversity.
Since 1979, major parties had largely avoided pairing candidates of the same faith at the top, fearing backlash from excluded constituencies. Electorally, the ticket had mixed results. While the party defended the decision as merit-based and strategic, the backlash was intense, particularly from Christian communities in the Middle Belt and the South.
Church leaders, civil society groups, and regional blocs framed the decision as exclusionary, arguing that symbolism matters in a country where religion remains a powerful mobilising force. Although Tinubu won the election, the controversy left scars: political, emotional, and electoral.
In several Christian-dominated states, APC’s margins shrank noticeably. The lesson from the election was clear: winning power does not always translate to winning trust. While APC retained strong support in parts of the North-West and South-West, voting patterns showed noticeable resistance in regions where religious identity plays a significant role, including parts of the Middle Belt and South-East.
Although governance by the administration is believed to be operated within the constitutional framework of federal character since it’s inauguration on May 29, 2023, political pundits, especially those of the Christian faith, have often and critically examined the leadership’s appointments through the lens of religious and regional balance.
Supporters of the administration framed the Tinubu-Shettima ticket as a bold rejection of identity politics, arguing that competence, loyalty, integrity and electoral strength should be the criteria for leadership, not religious considerations. They further contend that it undermines meritocracy, reducing leadership selection to a box-ticking exercise.
Critics, however, argue that the ticket heightened public suspicion, making it harder for the government to build broad-based trust. They saw it as a dangerous misreading of Nigeria’s fragile social balance, especially in a country where religion is deeply intertwined with regional identity and historical grievance.
2027 Calculations: Strategy, Signals, and Survival
While the ongoing examination through the lens of religious and regional balance keeps the conversation about diversity active and unresolved, political watchers cautioned that retaining a Muslim-Muslim ticket could signal defiance of public pressure and confidence in performance-based politics. They argue that the approach could lead to feelings of alienation, especially among Christians who perceive themselves as symbolically marginalised from the highest offices of state.
From a governance perspective, a more visibly balanced ticket could reduce political tension and restore some of the symbolic equilibrium that has historically helped Nigerian administrations manage crises. Analysts opined that though Nigerian elections are rarely won on performance alone; coalitions, perceptions, and emotional connections to power remain decisive.
Critics argue that diversity has become an overused political crutch, masking deeper issues of governance, accountability, and development. They further argue that Nigeria’s history shows that balanced tickets do not automatically translate into good governance. However, the absence of balance has often amplified mistrust and resistance, making governance even harder.
As 2027 approaches, President Tinubu faces a strategic choice: picking a Christian vice-presidential candidate would likely be read as an olive branch to Christians and aggrieved constituencies. It could reshape campaign strategy by allowing the APC to reframe itself as listening, adaptive, and inclusive.
Such a move, according to political observers, would also affect voting patterns, potentially improving the party’s prospects in the Middle Belt, South-East, and Christian-majority urban centres where turnout and sentiment can swing close contests.
Whether Tinubu heeds the diversity call in 2027 will be a test of his famed political sagacity. His vice-presidential choice may well signal which path he intends to take. Choosing a Christian Vice President would not merely be an act of appeasement; it would be a strategic recalibration aimed at restoring our diversity.
Eyes on Mutfwang
The current governor of Plateau State, Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang, represents a compelling intersection of religion, region, and temperament. First, he is a Christian from the Middle Belt – a region often described as Nigeria’s bridge between North and South, Islam and Christianity.
The Middle Belt has long complained of marginalisation, insecurity, and being politically overshadowed by the core North. Elevating a middle belt Christian to the vice presidency would send a powerful message of reset, recognition and inclusion.
Another factor is regional strategy. Plateau State sits within North Central Nigeria, a zone that has become electorally fluid. Once a stronghold of the PDP, it has in recent cycles demonstrated openness to alternative political alignments. A Tinubu-Mutfwang ticket could significantly weaken the opposition’s dominance in the zone and rebuild APC’s bridges to communities alienated in 2023.
Unlike some of Nigeria’s more combative political figures, Mutfwang projects calm, conciliatory leadership. His views on insecurity, interfaith coexistence, and governance are largely devoid incendiary tones. For a country fatigued by polarisation, this temperament could be an asset.
Right from his days in Kaduna where he practiced law and worshipped at the Chapel of Good News, Mutfwang’s political career has been on the spotlight. From Kaduna, he moved to Plateau State to become a local council chairman. Today, he is Governor and may just be the next VP pick by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Would he be the anointed one? We wait and see. In politics, 24 hours is a long time and anything can happen.
With his surprising defection to APC, political observers believe that a Tinubu-Mutfwang ticket would allow the APC to reframe its narrative: from a party accused of religious insensitivity to one that listens, adapts, and makes changes. In politics, perception often rivals policy in importance.
As Nigeria watches and waits, one question lingers: will Tinubu double down on precedent, or will he redraw the political map of inclusion in pursuit of national consensus? The answer may well define not just his political future, but the tone of Nigeria’s democracy in the years ahead.