33m Nigerians may face food insecurity in 2025 — Report

A report from Cadre Harmonisé, led by the Federal Government with support from partners like the United Nations World Food Programme, has raised alarms about declining food security in Nigeria.

The analysis forecasts that during the next lean season (June-August 2025), about 33.1 million people are expected to experience significant food insecurity, an increase of seven million from the same period last year.

This rise is attributed to several factors, including ongoing economic difficulties, record-high inflation rates, the effects of climate change, and persistent violence in northeastern states.

The report indicates that between October and December 2024, around 25.1 million people are likely to face food insecurity, even during the peak harvest season. Of this group, 3.8 million reside in the northeastern states, a number that is expected to climb to 5 million by 2025.

Nationwide, the number of individuals experiencing emergency levels (Phase 4) of food insecurity is also anticipated to rise significantly. Although no populations have been classified as facing ‘Catastrophe (Phase 5),’ those categorized as being in ‘Emergency (Phase 4)’ are expected to increase from 1 million during the lean season in 2024 to 1.8 million in 2025, representing an alarming 80% rise.

Approximately 5.4 million children and nearly 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women from the hardest-hit states—Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe in the northeast, and Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara in the northwest—are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting. Of these, an estimated 1.8 million children could suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and would require urgent nutritional intervention.

“This alarming increase of 7 million people compared to last year is driven by economic hardship, relentless inflation, climate change effects, and ongoing conflict in the northeastern regions,” the report stated.

According to the WFP, the number of people facing emergency food insecurity is set to rise from 1 million during the peak of the 2024 lean season to 1.8 million in the same period in 2025, marking an 80% increase in this distressing situation.

Additionally, significant price increases for staple foods are contributing to the crisis. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that in October 2024, the price of beans was 282% higher than in the previous year, and local rice saw a 153% increase. These economic pressures stem from various factors, including the depreciation of the naira against the US dollar, external economic conditions, and policy changes such as the removal of the fuel subsidy.

Climate change is also a significant contributor to food insecurity, particularly flooding, which has increased the costs of food and essential non-food items and services.

During the first half of October 2024, the FAO reported that floods affected over 9.2 million people and submerged 4.5 million hectares, including 1.6 million hectares of arable land. Estimations suggest that the resulting annual production losses for maize, sorghum, and rice in flooded regions may amount to 1.1 million tonnes—enough to feed around 13 million people for a year, with financial deficits approaching USD 1 billion.

Ongoing violence in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states continues to undermine food accessibility and availability. Additionally, criminal activities, such as banditry and kidnappings in the northwest, as well as farmer-herder conflicts in north-central regions like Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, and Niger, further exacerbate the nation’s economic challenges.

Trends since 2018 in the northeast have shown consistently high or increasing levels of food insecurity, with at least 4 million more individuals in need of urgent assistance during each lean season since June 2020. Critical levels of severe food insecurity and malnutrition are emerging in the northwest and parts of the north-central region, designating these areas as urgent hunger hotspots that require immediate action from policymakers.

Representing Dr. Nuhu Kilishi Mohammed, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security’s Director of Nutrition and Food Security, Dr. Temitope Fashedemi stressed the significance of the Cadre Harmonisé in guiding food and nutrition security interventions across the country.

Dominique Koffy Kouacou, the interim FAO representative in Nigeria and to ECOWAS, reaffirmed FAO’s commitment to helping Nigeria, stating, “In collaboration with our partners, FAO is dedicated to providing sustainable solutions that address the root causes of food insecurity and malnutrition. By enhancing agri-food systems, we aim to fulfill immediate needs while fostering long-term progress.”

WFP’s country representative, David Stevenson, emphasized the urgency of the hunger crisis in Nigeria, driven by conflict in the northeast, noting that restoring peace is vital for unlocking the region’s potential as the country’s food basket.

UNICEF’s country representative, Cristian Munduate, highlighted the dire situation facing children, who are at risk of irreversible health consequences, including death, and called for the fulfillment of every child’s right to adequate food and nutrition.

The United Nations has urged the Nigerian Government, donors, and stakeholders to allocate resources to avert a potential food and nutrition disaster, stressing the necessity for immediate, multi-sectoral support.

This report follows a $50 million commitment from the World Bank to address Nigeria’s food nutrition challenges. Country Director of the World Bank, Ndiame Diop, disclosed this funding during a meeting with Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Tuesday. The funds will be part of the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria (ANRiN) project 2.0, targeting crisis response strategies.