Achieving 2.2mbpd oil output depends on Rivers’ stability – NESG

The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group, Dr Tayo Aduloju, has warned that Nigeria’s ability to meet its crude oil production target of 2.2 million barrels per day depends on political stability in Rivers State.

Aduloju made this known on Friday during an interactive session with the media following the launch of the NESG Private Sector Outlook 2025 Report.

On March 18, 2025, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, citing escalating political instability and attacks on vital oil infrastructure.

The decision led to the suspension of Governor Sim Fubara, his deputy, and the state’s House of Assembly for six months. The President appointed retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas as interim administrator, emphasising that the move was necessary to protect critical petroleum assets and ensure national stability.

While speaking on the country’s oil production outlook and stressing that disruptions in the oil-rich state could significantly affect national output, Aduloju said, “Whether you like it or not, if your top earner is oil and oil struggles, we will feel it. Anyone who has followed Nigeria’s oil production over the years will understand that what happens in Rivers State quickly reflects in the numbers.

“There is some correlation between the stability of Rivers and oil production, and I think it has to do with where some of those assets are located. You will notice that the state of emergency declaration was triggered on the basis of an attack on the petroleum assets.”

According to him, the recent political tensions in Rivers State pose a serious threat to crude oil production.

“If we want to keep crude oil production at 2.2mbpd, which is the budget target, we must achieve political stability in Rivers. So, without prejudice to any of the actors, all interventions to create real political stability in the state have to be encouraged by all. Because you do need to be hitting your 2.2mbpd no matter what the price of crude is for your budget to even look realistic,” he said.

Aduloju highlighted that Nigeria has previously demonstrated its capacity to scale up production, recalling how output rose from as low as 1.1mbpd to nearly 2.8mbpd under improved conditions. He argued that sustaining 2.2mbpd was well within reach, provided security concerns in the Niger Delta, particularly in Rivers State, were addressed.

“The government has shown since it came in; remember we moved from 1.1, 2.2mbpd all the way to almost 2.8 million barrels a day, showing that the government can do 2.2mbpd. With this trajectory, the incremental production per day means it’s possible.

“So that is why we think 2.2mbpd is not ambitious; it is just within the range of the possible. What we need is real political stability in Rivers and the security improvement plan, which the government already has and continues to fund. The security improvement plan is clearly robust,” Aduloju reiterated.

The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers has sparked controversy, with supporters arguing it is essential for restoring order, while critics call it unconstitutional.

Rivers State, a key oil-producing region, has faced unrest and pipeline vandalism, threatening Nigeria’s crude production target of 2.2mbpd. Analysts warn that prolonged instability could have severe economic implications.

The Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, has intensified security measures in collaboration with the military and local stakeholders to curb oil theft and vandalism.

Meanwhile, the Head of Research and Development at NESG, Dr Joseph Ogebe, highlighted “product diversification, innovation: adopting technology-driven solutions to enhance productivity and competitiveness.

Public-private collaboration: strengthening partnerships with government and development partners to address infrastructure deficits and policy bottlenecks” as areas of opportunity for the private sector in Nigeria.