Afrinvest has warned Nigeria against falling behind on $1 trillion economy target.
NaijaOnPoint Nigeria reports that Afrinvest West Africa Limited has cautioned that more than two years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria is yet to chart a clear path toward achieving its $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
This warning was contained in the firm’s 20th Nigerian Banking Sector Report (BSR), themed “ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion-Dollar Economy,” launched in Lagos as part of Afrinvest’s 30th anniversary celebrations.
According to the report, the trillion-dollar ambition hinges on broad-based reforms in fiscal and monetary policy. However, recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows Nigeria’s economic base shrinking, with the rebased GDP for 2022 ($478 billion) nearly halved by external shocks and self-inflicted disruptions.
Afrinvest argued that while the Tinubu administration’s reforms appear sound in principle, “critical enablers to translate these reforms into measurable results are missing.” It noted that institutional weaknesses—such as insecurity, oil theft, fiscal opacity, wasteful public spending, and impunity—remain major obstacles.
Argentina vs Nigeria: A Case Study in Leadership
Drawing comparisons, Afrinvest highlighted Argentina’s turnaround under President Javier Milei. In less than two years, Argentina recorded 5.8% GDP growth, $14,360 per capita GDP, and rapid disinflation, outperforming Nigeria which saw -4.7% GDP, $835 per capita income, and minimal disinflation progress.
“This underscores the importance of consistent execution, institutional discipline, and decisive leadership in economic recovery,” the report stated.
ACT-BOLD Framework for Growth
To bridge these gaps, Afrinvest urged Nigeria to adopt its “ACT-BOLD” framework—anchored on decisive, transparent, and reform-driven governance. It emphasized accelerated investment in seven high-impact sectors as crucial to achieving inclusive and sustainable growth.
However, the firm projected that Nigeria would need average annual GDP growth of 21.95% and an exchange rate of about N1,500/$1 to reach the trillion-dollar goal by 2031—an ambition it described as daunting under current conditions.
Banking Sector Holds the Line
Afrinvest noted that the banking industry remains resilient, expanding by 15% in real terms in Q1 2025, and ranking among the top 10 GDP contributors. The sector has already raised over N2.5 trillion in new capital through rights issues, public offers, and private placements ahead of the Central Bank’s June 2026 recapitalization deadline.
Access Corporation, Zenith Bank, Ecobank, and Lotus Bank have already crossed the threshold, while others are pursuing mergers and acquisitions to stay compliant.
The report also reviewed recent monetary policy under CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, who has raised interest rates by 875 basis points to 27.5% between February and November 2024 to curb inflation, stabilize the naira, and restore investor confidence.
Afrinvest at 30: A Legacy of Resilience
Speaking at the launch, Afrinvest Group Managing Director, Dr. Ike Chioke, described the firm’s 30-year journey as one of “resilience, innovation, and leadership.” He recalled pivotal economic events such as Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the 2004–2005 banking reforms, the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2014 oil crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Afrinvest Chairman, Donald Lawson, represented by Professor Osita Ogbu of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, praised the company’s legacy of vision and adaptability, noting its growth from a single Lagos office to five major Nigerian cities.
“The 20th edition of the BSR is not just a report but a call to action—a framework to reposition Nigeria for sustainable growth,” Chioke affirmed.