Again, crude output drops amid global price crash

As the world battles a global crude price crash, Nigeria’s average daily crude output has fallen again in March, threatening the nation’s budget.

According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the daily crude production figure was an average of 1.40 million barrels per day, down from 1.465 mbpd in February.

The PUNCH reports that in January, crude production grew slightly above the 1.5 mbpd quota allotted to Nigeria by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The January output gave hope to industry players that the country was serious about realising its ambitious 2 mbpd target in 2025.

However, in February, the feat achieved in the first month of the year was eroded as production declined again, and this repeated itself in March, casting doubts on the feasibility of ramping up production to 2 mbpd this year.

Similarly, oil production (crude and condensate) dropped from 1.78 1.78mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February and 1.603 mbpd in March.

The regulator disclosed, “Lowest and peak production in March were 1.49 million bopd and 1.76 million bopd, respectively. The daily average production in March was 1,603,776 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,400,783 bopd) and condensate (202,993 bopd). The average crude oil production was 93 per cent of the OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).”

The PUNCH reports that Nigeria failed to meet the crude oil production quota approved by OPEC throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. But the government started the new year on a good note, with production surging from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd in the first month of 2025.

Crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, among other factors, were said to have prevented the country from meeting various OPEC oil production quotas over the years.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has repeatedly expressed confidence that Nigeria could hit 3 mbpd this year.

Lokpobiri insisted that Nigeria would ramp up production by following the ’Drill, baby drill’ slogan of the United States President, Donald Trump.

He said the 3 mbpd oil would include crude and condensates, adding that the country would raise production without having issues with OPEC. But there are concerns over the possibility of this considering the current decline in daily oil output.

At the moment, the price of crude oil has fallen by over $10 below the $75 per barrel projected by the Federal Government in the 2025 budget.

As of Sunday, Brent was $64.76 per barrel, while WTI stood at $61.50 per barrel.

In a recent report, Argus Media disclosed that crude oil grades from Nigeria faced tepid demand in the April trade cycle as ample availability of lower-priced alternatives such as US WTI, Caspian CPC Blend, and other Mediterranean grades enticed European buyers.

The report stated that the trade cycle has since shifted to May, “with as many as 15 April-loading Nigerian cargoes still looking for buyers.”

Experts have argued that all these factors would affect the country’s revenue projections in the 2025 budget.