Nigeria is increasingly resembling the world’s worst security flashpoints — not just Libya, but Haiti, where criminal gangs control much of the country. The federal government cannot allow this trajectory to continue…
Nigeria is increasingly resembling the world’s worst security flashpoints—not just Libya, but Haiti, where criminal gangs control much of the country. The federal government cannot allow this trajectory to continue
NIGERIA’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Grey List is a major victory for the Tinubu administration. After nearly three years under increased monitoring for anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing deficiencies, the country finally exited the list through sustained legislative reforms, improved coordination, and the establishment of a Beneficial Ownership Register.
The financial sector has welcomed the development, having endured restricted global interactions while Nigeria remained grey-listed.
But even as the economy records this milestone, the nation is sliding deeper into an insecurity crisis serious enough for the United States to redesignate Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for religious intolerance and persecution of Christians. The CPC label, in global security terms, is the equivalent of a blacklisting—much like the Grey List is in international finance.
The lesson is clear: if the economic team could work Nigeria out of the Grey List, the security establishment must act with equal urgency to reverse the CPC designation and stem the ongoing violence.
Recent events leave no room for denial. Terrorists and bandits have intensified their attacks since the CPC announcement: the kidnapping of 25 schoolgirls in Kebbi, the killing and abduction of worshippers in Niger State, and the seizure of 315 schoolchildren in Kwara all echo past tragedies in Chibok, Owo, and Dapchi.
The execution of Brigadier-General Musa Uba by ISWAP further underscores the audacity of these groups.
Nigeria is increasingly resembling the world’s worst security flashpoints—not just Libya, but Haiti, where criminal gangs control much of the country. The federal government cannot allow this trajectory to continue.
The wave of school closures — 51 Unity Schools and additional institutions across Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara by the governors of the respective states—mirrors the 2014 and 2018 shutdowns that followed the Chibok and Dapchi abductions. Unfortunately, this reinforces the country’s out-of-school-children crisis, now estimated by UNICEF at more than 10 million, mostly in the insurgency-prone North.
Nigeria cannot afford further drift. Just as the Grey List exit was achieved through focus, coordination, and political will, the fight against insecurity demands the same level of national commitment—before the country slides further toward the brink.
Before delving further into the escalating and dastardly kidnappings of schoolchildren in northern Nigeria—abductions for ransom that have cast a dark pall over the country—let us recall that the Catholic Pontiff, Pope Leo XV, intervened last Sunday. He offered prayers and lent his voice to counter the claim by U.S. President Donald Trump that genocide is taking place in Nigeria.
The Pope also appealed to the criminal elements stealing children and using them as bargaining chips to release them unharmed.
Thankfully — while no one is suggesting that the kidnappers, who are effectively agents of evil, are listening to the Pope — some captives were rescued last weekend. This indicates that the insecurity plaguing Nigeria is not beyond solution if greater attention is devoted to addressing violence and religious intolerance, as President Tinubu has begun doing by taking charge and establishing a security situation room, which he personally supervises.
This scenario demonstrates a simple truth: when security is given priority, results follow. Securing lives and property is a core pillar in the APC’s manifesto. Indeed, the Chief of Staff to the President, Rt. Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, presided over a major security conference a few months ago, underscoring the administration’s awareness of rising insecurity. Unfortunately, the conference outcomes appear to have remained in abeyance—perhaps because security had not been fully prioritised under tight fiscal constraints.
President Tinubu had recently reshuffled the service chiefs and attended a regional security conference in Rome, Aqaba, where he explored collaborative security models. These moves suggest insecurity was being brought to the front burner just before Nigeria was hit with the CPC label.
As I noted in this column last week, the administration spent its first two and a half years justifiably focused on rescuing the comatose economy it inherited—a commitment that ultimately removed Nigeria from the FATF Grey List.
But the new challenges—President Trump’s CPC designation and the increasingly brazen kidnappings and killings of Christians—prove that the administration must now multitask, managing all critical governance indices despite limited resources.
To better understand what lessons Nigeria can draw for the security sector, it is useful to review how the country exited the Grey List.
Implications of Being on the Grey List
The consequences for grey-listed countries are severe. They include:
- Reduced foreign investment
- Increased due diligence requirements for cross-border transactions
- Reputational damage
- Delays and barriers to trade and financial flows
Although grey-listed countries are not subject to the harsh sanctions applied to blacklisted nations, they remain under heightened scrutiny and must implement action plans to address identified deficiencies. The FATF frequently reviews and updates the list, prompting countries to maintain strict compliance.
This raises an intriguing question: Should Nigeria and indeed the world establish a dedicated agency to monitor religious persecution and terrorism across the world, serving as an early-warning system similar to the FATF’s monitoring of financial crimes globally?
Countries on the Grey List are often among the weakest economies—a reality underscored by the current list, which includes:
- Algeria
- Angola
- Bolivia
- Cameroon
- Haiti
- Kenya
- Lebanon
- Vietnam
Thus, Nigeria’s exit from this discredited group is truly worth celebrating.
CPC Status and Nigeria’s Security Crisis
President Trump may have threatened military intervention against Islamist extremists in Nigeria, but diplomacy and lobbying remain powerful tools to remedy the situation. As I emphasised last week, lobbying is the oil with which yam is eaten, to borrow Chinua Achebe’s famous metaphor
Nigeria can also remove itself from the list of countries where insecurity is rampant and where allegations of religious persecution persist—the same allegations that underpinned President Trump’s October 30 designation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern.
Despite Nigeria’s economic recovery efforts — which is helping it shed its label as the “poverty capital” of the world — the country now finds itself among nations designated by the U.S. as CPC due to suspected severe violations of religious freedom. It is an accomplishment Nigeria is fighting hard to shed via the powerful delegation of the leaders at the top echelon of its security architecture dispatched to its US counterparts to correct misunderstandings and foster greater collaboration between both nations on security and religious harmony.
The CPC countries that Nigeria should not be in the company of include:
- Burma (Myanmar)
- China
- Cuba
- Eritrea
- Iran
- Nicaragua
- North Korea
- Pakistan
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- Tajikistan
- Turkmenistan
Additionally, five nations are on the U.S. Special Watch List:
- Algeria
- Azerbaijan
- Central African Republic
- Comoros
- Vietnam
Notably, Saudi Arabia — a close U.S. ally — is on the CPC list. Yet during the recent Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh, Donald Trump Jr. was hosted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and shortly afterward, President Trump hosted the Crown Prince at the White House. Subsequently, the Saudi Crown Prince had also visited President Trump in the White House last week.
During that visit, Saudi Arabia pledged to invest nearly $1 trillion in U.S. artificial intelligence ventures and acquire advanced military equipment.
This highlights an important point: CPC status is not a death sentence for our country. That is because the situation can be reversed.
President Trump may have threatened military intervention against Islamist extremists in Nigeria, but diplomacy and lobbying remain powerful tools to remedy the situation. As I emphasized last week, lobbying is the oil with which yam is eaten, to borrow Chinua Achebe’s famous metaphor.
It must be emphasised that Nigeria is not in the U.S. doghouse, as evidenced by the ongoing visit of Nigeria’s security chiefs, led by National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, to engage American officials and clarify issues. However, going forward, Nigeria must demonstrate seriousness in prosecuting religious extremists.
Apart from CPC, there are also Entities of Particular Concern (EPC) such as:
- al-Shabaab
- Boko Haram
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
- Houthis
- ISIS-Sahel
- ISIS-West Africa
- Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin
- Taliban
Significantly, two of the eight EPC groups — Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa — are the primary sources of Nigeria’s insecurity. ISIS-West Africa is accused of ambushing and executing Brig. Gen. Musa Abu, while Boko Haram has been behind numerous mass kidnappings and church attacks since 2014.
It is to draw attention to Nigeria’s dangerously fragile security situation that the title of this article likens the country to Haiti—to emphasize why Nigeria must avoid descending into similar chaos.
Nigeria and Haiti: A Disturbing Comparison
Reports show that Haiti is overrun by gang violence. Armed groups control much of Port-au-Prince. In 2024 alone:
- Over 5,600 people were killed
- Nearly 1,500 were kidnapped
- 5.5 million people faced acute food insecurity, including 2 million in emergency hunger
Does this not mirror Nigeria’s situation, where millions live in Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps across the North?
Brazil has also faced a wave of kidnappings for ransom — “express kidnappings” — where victims were forced to withdraw cash or make digital transfers.
Incidentally, Nigeria is currently witnessing similar crimes, even involving rogue police officers who compel motorists to pay bribes via PoS after contrived traffic stops as a recent incident close to the law school at Ozumba Mbadiwe intersection as recent as last week reveals.
Recent events in Brazil, including the 2001 kidnapping of Patricia Abravanel and the 2008 Eloá Pimentel tragedy, underscore the dangers of mismanaging hostage situations. Nigeria must draw lessons from these cases as terrorists are increasingly taunting security forces on social media, attempting to lure them into reckless confrontations that could endanger abducted schoolchildren.
Since the surge in mass kidnappings in 2014, President Tinubu stands out as the only Commander-in-Chief to personally lead a security “war room,” as shown in images and footage circulating in the media. His hands-on approach has produced early results: the rescue of 38 abducted worshippers in Kwara State and 50 schoolchildren in Niger State within 48–60 hours. Although some victims in Kebbi and Niger are still in captivity, these outcomes suggest that when the presidency prioritises security, progress follows. It may be recalled that US President Barack Obama was physically present in the war room to direct the targeting and neutralisation of the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 bombing by Al-Qaeda terrorists of the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Virginia.
l would like to suggest that in the same manner that President Tinubu has significantly tamed inflation, stabilised the naira and ended petrol pump price subsidy, insecurity that is making the Benue and Nassarawa states look like killing fields, metaphorically, should compel the president, commander- in- chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, Tinubu to dorn his thinking cap and figure out, an out-of- the -box way, how to guarantee the security of the lives and properties of the Nigerians…
Tinubu’s decision to suspend his attendance at the G-20 summit in South Africa and the African Union meeting in Angola to focus on the kidnapping crisis has boosted his leadership optics. This contrasts sharply with previous administrations, which typically responded by merely directing service chiefs to “relocate to ground zero.”
After ordering Defence Minister Bello Matawalle to relocate to Kebbi, Tinubu personally took charge when another mass abduction occurred in Niger State. While some critics claim the war room lacked enough military presence, the mix of communication and intelligence specialists may explain the improved outcomes.
My experience as a Delta State commissioner during the era of militancy driven by resource agitators between 2003-2007 taught me that security cannot be left to armed forces alone. Community-level intelligence—“see something, say something”—is indispensable. Hence, l set up an information office in all the local government headquarters in the state to obtain first-hand information from the grassroots.
President Tinubu’s approval of 30,000 new police recruits is therefore a welcome step. I have long argued that Nigeria needs at least 100,000 additional officers to meet UN standards of 222 to 100,000 people which is roughly one officer per 450 people. These were contained in my piece published on 17 June titled: “Democracy, GDP Growth, Poverty, and Insecurity in Nigeria”.
In that 17 June intervention, l made the case this way:
“Apparently, while President Tinubu has recorded significant progress in other segments of society as earlier catalogued, he appears to be confounded and overwhelmed by the alarming scourge of insecurity as evidenced by the escalation of killings in the past couple of years, especially in Benue and Plateau states”. Continuing, l made the case that
“The Benue state governor Hycinth Alia’s allegations that the killing of villagers in his state by heavily armed bandits who also burn the houses resulting in the villagers fleeing into the bushes while abandoning their homes and which is often followed by the arrival of herdsmen and their cattle should be investigated.”
I argued further thus: “That would help determine if indeed the attacks have international dimensions/elements and the invasion and seizure of our lands to be occupied by foreigners which is the unfolding scenario, is not a very high security threat to the sovereignty of Nigeria since the Wagner group (Russian private military contractors for hire) and other foreign mercenaries are currently operating in neighboring countries like Niger Republic, Mali and Burkina Faso which have withdrawn their membership of ECOWAS -a regional organization serving the common interests of the nation that are located in the region” Additionally l stated in that piece that:
“ In light of the above, it would appear as if instead of insecurity going down, it has been rising under President Tinubu’s watch.
That is not good optics for the incumbent administration.” Then l counsel that “As such, tackling insecurity needs to be prioritised by President Tinubu. It is a promise that he has made for the umpteenth time but the talk has not been transformed into action.
So, l would like to suggest that in the same manner that President Tinubu has significantly tamed inflation, stabilised the naira and ended petrol pump price subsidy, insecurity that is making the Benue and Nassarawa states look like killing fields, metaphorically, should compel the president, commander- in- chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, Tinubu to dorn his thinking cap and figure out, an out-of- the -box way, how to guarantee the security of the lives and properties of the Nigerians living in Benue and Nassarawa states who have been under siege by vicious outlaws without protection the federal government which our compatriot in those targeted states are entitled.”
In retrospect, that was a fair assessment. If the advice had been acted upon at that point, perhaps our country might not have been labelled a CPC on November 30 by President Trump.
With vast ungoverned spaces, such as those in Niger and Kwara State, criminals will continue to find safe havens unless policing capacity is strengthened.
Now pushed to elevate security to his top priority — spurred by President Trump’s CPC designation and the wave of church attacks and kidnappings shaking the country—Tinubu appears more focused than ever on ending insecurity in Nigeria. If this momentum is sustained, the era of impunity enjoyed by terrorists, insurgents, and bandits may finally be drawing to a close.
If that happens through a new era of collaboration between the US and Nigeria as the congresman Chris Smith’s bill co- sponsored by Bill Huizenga, Gus Bilirakis and Maria Elvira aimed at holding Nigeria accountable for its human rights record, as the congessman pointed out, the law is is not meant to punish Nigeria but to enhance diplomatic efforts, better still it could improve Nigeria-US relations.
If President Tinubu’s administration scales this hurdle by warming up its relationship with the US, which has been tending towards being cold and recovering all the hostages compared to the Chibok girls who have remained missing since 2014, he would be credited for turning adversity into opportunity, which would further reinforce his reputation as a political maverick.
Next week l will discuss the prospect of beyond relying on National Security and Civil Defense Corps, licensing private security firms to perform guard duties for VIPs as the president has commendably directed that a significant number of the police which some estimate to be up to 52% of the force should be deployed to fight insecurity. It is necessary to close the vacuum before attempting to close the security gap in the hinterlands could result in another such as the kidnapping of VlPs, who would be stripped of police protection in the cities, triggering VIP kidnapping.
- Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, and alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, is a Commonwealth Institute scholar and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He sent this piece from Lagos.