Analysts at Optimum Global have projected that the naira will trade between N1,500 and N1,600 in the second half of 2025, assuming positive macroeconomic conditions persist.
This forecast was shared in their newly released half-year investment outlook report titled “Anchored Policy, Unanchored Risks”, which also offered projections for inflation and capital market performance.
According to the firm, the naira has stayed relatively stable because the Central Bank stepped in with targeted support, adding liquidity when needed, especially during times of high volatility in the global oil market.
“The second quarter began with currency weakness, triggered by falling crude oil prices and high demand for foreign exchange. However, the CBN’s active interventions—such as dollar sales in the spot market—helped stabilize the FX rate,” the report noted.
Optimum Global also noted that Nigeria’s external reserves rose to around $38.5 billion during the quarter, giving the Central Bank more room to manage volatility and cushion the economy against market shocks.
This, they explained, helped keep the naira trading within the N1,530–N1,600 range, despite swings in oil prices which would have affected the currency if not for the measures.
The report also noted that maintaining adequate reserves and continued efforts by the CBN to stabilize the market will be key to keeping the naira stable, just as it was in H1 2025.
The naira held relatively steady against the dollar in the first half of 2025, even as global oil prices swung sharply during the period.
However, from February to April, the story changed. The naira gradually weakened, falling to N1,596/$ by the end of April.
News of increased oil supply pushed prices lower, and the naira weakened in response.
However, things took a turn from May through June. Oil prices began climbing again, crossing $66 per barrel, while Nigerian grades traded above $70.
As oil prices spiked, so did the naira. By the end of June, it had strengthened to around N1,530/$, gaining about 3% from its April low.
Analysts noted that the naira’s recovery was not only due to rising oil prices but also supported by the Central Bank’s dollar sales, which helped keep the currency stable during March and April.
On April 4, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) injected $197.71 million into the foreign exchange (FX) market as part of its ongoing efforts to boost liquidity and keep the market functioning smoothly.
This move came in response to growing global economic pressures affecting many emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
To counter this, the CBN’s intervention aimed to stabilize the naira.
To counter this, the CBN’s intervention aimed to stabilize the naira.
By injecting dollars into the market, the Bank increased supply and eased demand pressures, reducing the need for more naira to buy one dollar and helping to relieve pressure on the local currency.