In a recent analysis by Morgan Stanley, the iPhone 16 has emerged as the least popular iPhone model in recent years, as reported by AppleInsider. The survey, based on lead times for pre-orders and deliveries, reveals that demand for the iPhone 16 is significantly lower than its predecessors. This drop in popularity has raised questions about Apple’s sales trajectory for its flagship product.
Lead times show iPhone 16 demand is not as high as Apple hoped it will be
The key indicator of iPhone popularity in the survey was the lead time — the number of days between ordering a phone and receiving it. For the iPhone 16 Pro Max, lead times averaged 25.5 days, down from 43.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. Similarly, the iPhone 16 Pro saw a lead time of 18.5 days, compared to 32.5 days last year. The base iPhone 16 model had a lead time of just 9 days, significantly shorter than the 14 days reported for the iPhone 15.
Morgan Stanley’s data shows that the iPhone 16 least popular model is a result of these shorter lead times. According to the survey, this is the shortest wait time for any iPhone in the last five years.
The lower demand for the iPhone 16 has led Morgan Stanley to predict that Apple may reduce its production orders. This conclusion is based on historical data, although analysts caution that early lead times are not always accurate predictors of long-term sales. The investment bank suggests that while the iPhone 16 least popular status may be concerning, Apple’s overall supply strategy could be playing a role in the shorter wait times.
“When we aggregate all of our iPhone lead time data, average iPhone 16 lead times from pre-order to today stands at 14 days, shortest amongst all cycles in the last 5 years and roughly in-line with the iPhone 12 cycle,” says Morgan Stanley.
Comparison to previous models
When compared to previous models, the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus are underperforming in terms of early demand. Lead times for the iPhone 16 Plus dropped to just 7.9 days, compared to 13.9 days for the iPhone 15 Plus. Analysts noted that even though the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus sold approximately 37 million units during the first weekend, these numbers fall short of expectations.
In contrast, the Pro models, which historically see higher demand, also saw shorter lead times, though the decline was less pronounced. For example, the iPhone 16 Pro Max’s 25.5-day lead time is still a significant drop from the 43.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
Despite the apparent lack of enthusiasm, Morgan Stanley analysts remain cautious about concluding. They note that early sales figures can fluctuate, and factors such as improved stock management or regional variations may be influencing the data. Additionally, external factors, like the rising cost of iPhones in certain markets, could play a role in the iPhone 16 least popular designation.
Russians, for instance, have been ordering more iPhone 16 units despite higher prices in their country. The global market remains fragmented, making it difficult to predict the overall performance of the Phone at this stage.
As the holiday season approaches, it remains to be seen how the Apple iPhone 16 will perform in the long term. While Morgan Stanley’s report suggests that the iPhone 16 least popular status could lead to production cuts, the investment bank also acknowledged that early lead times have limited predictive power.