The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) has released a report on Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, warning that the conduct of the polls inflicted significant damage on the credibility of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary, while raising serious questions about the country’s democratic future.
The report, titled “Telescoping Nigeria’s Elections: 2023 Election Cycle in Perspective,” was presented on Wednesday at the CISLAC Conference Hall in Abuja.
TMG Chairman, Auwal Ibrahim Musa Rafsanjani, described the 2023 elections as a missed opportunity for democratic advancement, despite the introduction of technological innovations and legal reforms.
His words: “The 2023 general election was supposed to set a new benchmark for transparency and credibility.
“Instead, the process has left many Nigerians disillusioned and questioning the future of democratisation in our country.”
According to the report, INEC’s failure to electronically transmit polling unit results as mandated by the Electoral Act 2022 created a perception of manipulation and lack of transparency.
It particularly cited the refusal of INEC’s chairman at the National Collation Centre to heed calls from party agents to verify results via the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal, a move described as a “brazen disregard” that undermined public trust in the process.
The report also condemned the judiciary’s growing involvement in deciding election outcomes, warning that the courts, rather than the electorate, increasingly determine who holds political office.
“The judiciary’s credibility is now under intense scrutiny. There is rising concern over whether elections are truly being decided by voters or by courtroom technicalities,” Rafsanjani said.
TMG documented widespread malpractice before and during the elections, including vote-buying during party primaries and electoral violence that extended into the general elections.
It also referred to the polarising role of ethnic and religious mobilisation, noting, in particular, the low voter turnout in Northern Nigeria, which it attributed to disillusionment with the incumbent government.
Despite the deployment of tools such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), the report confirmed “widespread failure to transmit polling unit results to the IReV portal,” in violation of electoral law and expectations for a more transparent process.
Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, Rafsanjani raised concerns about a deteriorating political environment, citing the increasing trend of politicians switching parties, which he warned could erode democratic competition and create a de facto one-party state.
“The credibility of the 2027 elections is already under threat,” he warned.
“The ideals of fair competition are being eroded, and the electorate’s right to choose among diverse candidates is being compromised,” he added.
The report also assessed recent off-cycle elections in Kogi, Bayelsa, and Imo states. While it noted improved professionalism from some security agencies and voter enthusiasm, it warned that these positive signs were overshadowed by cases of politically connected individuals allegedly using security personnel to commit electoral infractions.
TMG called for renewed commitment from all stakeholders to protect Nigeria’s democratic institutions and processes.
“There must be a collective understanding that flawed elections produce poor governance.
“All the resources, commitments, and goodwill from citizens, development partners, and foreign governments must be properly harnessed to ensure that the 2027 elections are genuinely free, fair, and credible,” Rafsanjani stated.