BREAKING: IMF projects 37% inflation rate for Nigeria in 2026 

The inflation rate, although down from 33.2% in 2024, is expected to spike again to 37.0% in 2026.

This forecast is contained in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which paints a cautious picture of Nigeria’s macroeconomic prospects amid reform-driven adjustments and external volatility. Despite a temporary slowdown in inflation, the Fund warns that price stability remains elusive.

While inflation shows signs of short-term moderation, Nigeria’s external position is under pressure. The IMF projects the current account surplus to narrow from 9.1% of GDP in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, and further to 5.2% in 2026.

CBN data shows Nigeria recorded a Balance of Payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, its first in three years. This was driven by a $17.22 billion surplus in the current and capital account, supported by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion.

However, the sustainability of this surplus is in question.

JP Morgan has warned that prolonged oil prices below Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven of $60 per barrel could reverse the current account into a deficit. In contrast, Fitch Ratings expects a moderate surplus averaging 3.3% of GDP over 2025–2026, supported by refinery projects and energy reforms.

The IMF also revised Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast downward to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, from 3.4% in 2024. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts were revised lower by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, due to lower expected oil receipts.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s real per capita output is projected to rise by just 0.6% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026, indicating minimal gains in individual income levels despite overall growth. This lags behind the Sub-Saharan Africa average and underscores continued inequality and weak household purchasing power.

In January 2025, the NBS updated the CPI base year from 2009 to 2024 to reflect more current household spending patterns.

However, it emphasised the need for broader reforms to address structural inefficiencies, boost productivity, and reduce inflation over the long term.