The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the country’s external reserves would climb to $51.04 billion in 2026, up from $45 billion in 2025.
The projection was contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria in 2026 titled Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, published by the apex bank on Tuesday.
“The external reserves are projected at $51.04 billion in 2026 compared with $45.01 billion in 2025. The external reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.
“Additionally, Dangote refinery’s expansion of its nameplate capacity to 700,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd in 2025 and eventually to 1.4 million bpd in the medium term would further support the growth in external reserves,” the report read.
In the FX market, the apex bank noted that reforms are expected to further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability.
In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.
It also projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, despite lingering global uncertainties, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and improved macroeconomic coordination.
According to the report, the outlook for 2026 is “cautiously optimistic”, with expectations that the economy will stabilise further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate, and the foreign exchange market remains stable.
The lender also projected improved activity in the non-oil sector, although it noted that structural constraints persist.
The CBN said that following a prolonged period of monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment. The decision, it said, was driven by “continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions”.
It added that external buffers strengthened during the period due to increased remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), steady oil receipts, and rising non-oil exports, which collectively supported naira stability.
The CBN also reported “substantial progress” in its transition towards a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime, supported by improved forecasting tools, modelling frameworks, and enhanced policy communication.
According to the outlook, strategic policy decisions taken in 2025 improved price and exchange rate stability, boosted capital inflows, and strengthened the resilience of the financial system.
It noted that significant progress was also recorded in the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise, with many banks already meeting the new capital thresholds.
“As a result of the implementation of coordinated macroeconomic policy measures and the impact of the reforms, the Outlook projects a more stable and resilient Nigerian economy in 2026,” the report stated, adding that inflation is expected to continue moderating, output growth to strengthen, and foreign exchange stability to be sustained, leading to further reserve accumulation.
The document stressed the need for harmonised fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms, and tailored guidelines to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum.
The apex bank also stressed the importance of maintaining orthodox monetary policy and continued reforms in the foreign exchange market to ensure price and exchange rate stability.