The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, despite lingering global uncertainties, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and improved macroeconomic coordination.
This is contained in the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, themed “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability amid Global Uncertainty”, which reviews economic developments in 2025, outlines projections for 2026 and highlights policy priorities to mitigate emerging risks.
According to the report, the outlook for 2026 is “cautiously optimistic”, with expectations that the economy will stabilise further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate and the foreign exchange market remains stable. The Bank also projected improved activity in the non-oil sector, although it noted that structural constraints persist.
The CBN said that following a prolonged period of monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment. The decision, it said, was driven by “continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions”.
It added that external buffers strengthened during the period due to increased remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), steady oil receipts and rising non-oil exports, which collectively supported naira stability. The Bank also reported “substantial progress” in its transition towards a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime, supported by improved forecasting tools, modelling frameworks and enhanced policy communication.
According to the Outlook, strategic policy decisions taken in 2025 improved price and exchange rate stability, boosted capital inflows and strengthened the resilience of the financial system. It noted that significant progress was also recorded in the ongoing banking sector recapitalisation exercise, with many banks already meeting the new capital thresholds.
“As a result of the implementation of coordinated macroeconomic policy measures and the impact of the reforms, the Outlook projects a more stable and resilient Nigerian economy in 2026,” the report stated, adding that inflation is expected to continue moderating, output growth to str
The document stressed the need for harmonised fiscal and monetary policies, institutional reforms and tailored guidelines to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum.
It also stressed the importance of maintaining orthodox monetary policy and continued reforms in the foreign exchange market to ensure price and exchange rate stability.
Beyond diagnostics, the Outlook outlined policy priorities across key sectors, including the use of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to drive inclusive growth, improve productivity and boost job creation. While noting encouraging prospects, it warned that achieving these goals would require sustained reform commitment and careful management of domestic and global risks.
“As the monetary authority of Nigeria, the Bank remains steadfast in achieving its core mandate of price stability while promoting sustainable development and fostering economic resilience,” the Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, said.
He added, “The Bank will sustain its regulatory oversight and commitment to ensuring that policies are timely, data-driven, and supportive of a stable macroeconomic environment.”
Abdullahi also commended the Research Department for producing the report and invited stakeholders to engage with its findings. “I invite all stakeholders, including policymakers, business leaders, academics, civil society organisations, and the public to take full advantage of the insights presented in this Outlook. Together, we can chart a path toward a more stable, prosperous, and competitive economy,” he said.
The executive summary of the report noted that global economic growth slowed slightly to an estimated 3.20 per cent in 2025, from 3.30 per cent in 2024, due to lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies. Global inflation, however, moderated to 4.20 per cent, supported by lower energy costs and easing supply-chain pressures.