China moves to bolster employment, exports amid escalating trade tensions with US 

In a press conference held in Beijing, authorities outlined plans to support companies impacted by rising tariffs and hinted at the likelihood of additional economic stimulus if needed.

The move comes just weeks after the U.S. and China dramatically raised tit-for-tat tariffs, more than doubling duties on certain goods to over 100%.

The spike in trade barriers has disrupted production lines across China’s manufacturing hubs, forcing factories to pause operations and, in some cases, send workers home.

Exports, a rare bright spot amid China’s broader economic challenges—including sluggish consumer spending and an ongoing real estate downturn—have now come under severe pressure.

Goldman Sachs analysts in a recent report stressed the significance of employment stability to Chinese policymakers, highlighting its critical role in maintaining social order and supporting consumer demand.

This shift is understandable, given the high stakes: in addition to existing employment pressures, China is expecting a record 12.22 million higher education graduates to enter the job market this year, up by 430,000 compared to 2023.

The country’s urban unemployment rate for 16–24-year-olds, excluding students, remained elevated at 16.5% in March, slightly down from 16.9% in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The overall urban unemployment rate also edged down to 5.2% in March from 5.4% previously.

In response, the Ministry of Human Resources last Friday announced new subsidies for companies that hire recent graduates, though the exact amount remains unspecified. Officials also revealed plans to encourage entrepreneurship, expand vocational training programs, and optimize wage distribution in sectors identified as having “urgent” labor needs.

Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, emphasized during the briefing that financial support will be extended to exporters to boost their confidence and ability to take on new orders. Sheng highlighted recent collaborative efforts with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to assist exporters in selling their products domestically and in cutting operating costs, including rent.

He was joined by senior officials from the NDRC, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), and the Ministry of Human Resources—all signaling a coordinated approach to tackling mounting economic pressures.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed to historical patterns where the PBoC tends to cut interest rates when labor market conditions weaken.

Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Head of the NDRC, told reporters that China is confident it can meet its full-year GDP growth target of around 5%. He confirmed that additional stimulus measures would be introduced “incrementally” as economic conditions evolve. Zhao further noted that policy initiatives to boost consumption and the establishment of a state-level technology development fund are slated to be implemented by the end of June.

Despite a stronger-than-expected 5.4% GDP growth in the first quarter, China’s recovery remains fragile. While authorities have stepped up support since late September, many investors have been disappointed by the absence of a broad, large-scale stimulus package.

The escalating trade dispute with the U.S. adds another layer of complexity, particularly for China’s vital manufacturing and export sectors, which are already grappling with weakening global demand.