Nigeria is projected to face a worsening food security crisis in 2026, with up to 34.7 million people at risk of acute food insecurity.
This is according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth.”
The report warns that unless urgent and coordinated policy actions are taken, these factors will continue to weaken food production, distribution, and access across the country.
PwC attributes the projected rise in food insecurity to persistent insecurity, particularly in northern Nigeria, where conflict has displaced thousands of farmers and disrupted core agricultural activities such as planting and harvesting.
“Conflict, high input costs, and climate shocks are expected to push 34.7 million Nigerians into acute food insecurity in 2026,” PwC said in the report.
According to the report, between January and October 2025, about 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, significantly reducing available agricultural labour.
The outlook highlights a sharp increase in agricultural input costs as another major constraint on food production.
The national average price of NPK fertiliser rose by 19.5% in 2025 to about N52,000 per 50kg bag, the report noted.
“Production costs increased sharply, with maize and soybean production costs up 29.2% and 36.8%,” the report stated.
“Limited access to finance reduced input usage: only 62% of farmers used agricultural inputs in 2025, down from 81% in 2024, leading to a 24% drop in input application and an 8% contraction in cultivated land,” PwC added.
Erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells in 2025 resulted in below-average agricultural output in several regions.
PwC warned that these shocks have already reduced food availability and are likely to exacerbate food insecurity in 2026.
PwC’s projections align with warnings from farmers and international organisations, underscoring the scale of the looming crisis.
Naijaonpoint previously reported that farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions warned of abandoning farming due to rising production costs, insecurity, and massive post-harvest losses.
Similarly, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season, based on its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
Nigeria has struggled with food inflation driven by insecurity, currency pressures, and rising energy and input costs.
Nigeria has struggled with food inflation driven by insecurity, currency pressures, and rising energy and input costs.
Fertiliser prices and limited access to agricultural finance have significantly reduced input usage among smallholder farmers.
FAO and other development partners have repeatedly called for urgent interventions to improve security, climate resilience, and food supply chains.
PwC stressed that addressing insecurity, reducing input costs, expanding agricultural finance, and strengthening climate adaptation will be critical to preventing the projected food insecurity from escalating into a humanitarian crisis in 2026.