The average cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice across Nigerian cities dropped by 3.17% in the third quarter of 2025, according to SBM Intelligence National Average Jollof Index.
The report, however, noted that while headline figures suggest slight relief, the real cost of food remains out of reach for most households.
It added that the apparent improvement was largely due to technical changes in how inflation is measured, not actual price drops in markets.
SBM Intelligence explained that the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) which changed the reference year from 2009 to 2024 significantly altered the way food inflation is reported.
Under the new system, the year-on-year food inflation rate for July 2025 was 22.74%, compared to 39.53% in July 2024 a 16.79 percentage point difference.However, the firm said this drop does not mean Nigerians are paying less for food.
“A significant technical event influencing the perception of food prices was the implementation of the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, shifting the reference year from 2009 to 2024. As a statistical consequence, the reported year-on-year (YoY) food inflation rate for July 2025 was 22.74%, a substantial 16.79% point decline compared to the pre-rebased rate in July 2024 (39.53%).
While statistically accurate under the new measure, this figure compares against an already hyper-inflated 2024 price baseline, not genuine consumer-level price relief,” the report stated
Beyond statistical adjustments, SBM identified insecurity is the biggest threat to food affordability in Nigeria, noting that the main cost pressures come from informal and security-related levies along major highways.
The report adds that bad roads continue to worsen the situation, leading to vehicle wear and tear, higher fuel consumption, potential spoilage of perishables like tomatoes, and drivers demanding hazard bonuses.To cope with these challenges, traders have adjusted their pricing model.
“To account for this volatile operational environment, traders structurally embed these costs by adding up to 20-30% to the base cost of the goods when setting prices,” the report stated.
SBM describes this as an unofficial, deeply entrenched tax on commerce, saying it reflects a critical failure of state security to secure transit corridors.
The report shows that the jellof continues to move differently across Nigeria’s regions, reflecting how local insecurity and logistics costs shape daily realities.
The report identifies insecurity as the primary obstacle to food affordability in Nigeria and urges policymakers to look beyond the comfort of year-on-year inflation figures. The urgent recommendations are: