Credit to the private sector rose sharply in October 2025, climbing to N74.41 trillion from N72.53 trillion in September, based on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s money and credit statistics.
The increase of about N1.88 trillion represents a month-on-month growth of 2.60%, the strongest positive movement so far in 2025.
The jump came immediately after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 27% at its September 2025 meeting, the first policy rate reduction since 2020, as inflation began to ease and foreign exchange conditions improved.
At its November 2025 meeting, the MPC then held the MPR at 27%, while tweaking the corridor around the rate to discourage banks from simply parking liquidity with the CBN, signalling a cautious approach to managing system liquidity and inflation.
On a year-on-year basis, credit to the private sector increased only slightly, from N74.07 trillion in October 2024 to N74.41 trillion in October 2025. That represents a rise of N0.34 trillion, or 0.46%.
The modest annual gain shows that while the stock of private credit is broadly back to where it was a year earlier, the real story is the short-term rebound that followed the September rate cut.
Across 2025, the pattern of private sector credit has been choppy rather than steadily expansionary. It started the year at N77.38 trillion in January, slipped to N76.26 trillion in February and N75.98 trillion in March, then recovered to N78.07 trillion in April.
It softened again to N77.97 trillion in May and N76.13 trillion in June, hovered around N75.88 trillion in August, then dropped sharply to N72.53 trillion in September before the October bounce to N74.41 trillion.
Taken together, this trajectory shows that tight monetary conditions and liquidity swings held back private credit for much of the year, while the September rate cut appears to have triggered a fresh but still fragile lending impulse in October.
The October gain of N1.88 trillion, or 2.60%, does not fully erase the September drop, but it clearly marks a turning point after several months of drift or decline. In real terms, once inflation is taken into account, the private sector has likely experienced a squeeze in credit availability through most of 2025, and the recent improvement is from a relatively subdued base.
Total domestic credit, which combines credit to government and credit to the private sector, rose from N96.69 trillion in September to N99.20 trillion in October 2025. That represents an increase of about N2.51 trillion, or 2.60% month-on-month.
In October, the private sector accounted for about 75.0% of total domestic credit, with the government taking up the remaining 25.0%. The split is calculated from the N74.41 trillion in private credit and N24.79 trillion in government credit relative to total domestic credit of N99.20 trillion. In September, the shares were almost identical, with the private sector at about 75.0% and government at 25.0%.
This composition has shifted notably compared with a year earlier.
In October 2024, total domestic credit stood at N113.46 trillion, of which N74.07 trillion went to the private sector and N39.39 trillion to government. That meant private credit represented about 65.3% of domestic credit, while government borrowing made up 34.7%. By October 2025, the private share had risen by almost 10 percentage points, driven mainly by the steep fall in government credit.
In absolute terms, total domestic credit is lower than a year ago, dropping by about N14.26 trillion, or 12.57%, between October 2024 and October 2025. The fall is entirely due to reduced credit to government, which fell by N14.60 trillion over the period. Private sector credit, by contrast, is slightly higher than a year ago, up by N0.34 trillion.
When decomposing the October 2025 monthly increase of N2.51 trillion in domestic credit, private sector credit contributed about N1.88 trillion, which is roughly 75% of the rise. Government borrowing added about N0.63 trillion, accounting for the remaining 25%.
When decomposing the October 2025 monthly increase of N2.51 trillion in domestic credit, private sector credit contributed about N1.88 trillion, which is roughly 75% of the rise. Government borrowing added about N0.63 trillion, accounting for the remaining 25%.
The numbers show that the private sector now clearly dominates the domestic credit structure and is the main driver of month-to-month movements in total credit, even though government borrowing still has a material impact.
With the MPC having cut rates in September and held them in November, the balance between private demand for credit and public sector borrowing will be central to how liquidity, money supply and inflation evolve into 2026.