Crude oil was down Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the US, the world’s largest oil market, and a boost in supply from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
Brent crude traded at $68.12 a barrel after losing 50 cents or 0.73 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $64.01 after shedding 59 cents or 0.91 per cent.
Crude output has increased as the OPEC+ group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices. The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week’s OPEC+ meeting.
The US summer driving season ends on Monday’s Labour Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the US.
There were also worries about tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump on US imports from many trading partners, with the market beginning to wonder what effect the tariffs might have on the economic outlook next year.
Prices rose earlier in the week due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil export terminals, but reports of talks between Ukraine’s European allies about a possible ceasefire helped tamp down prices ‘
Also, US crude inventories for the week ending August 22 showed higher-than-expected draws, implying late-summer demand was still firm, particularly in industrial and freight-related sectors.
Investors are also watching for India’s response to pressure from the United States to stop buying Russian oil, after Trump doubled tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50 per cent on Wednesday. So far, India has defied the US and Russian oil exports to India are set to rise in September.
This has not changed even as India’s state and private refiners bought more US crude in August to take advantage of the lower freight costs and an open arbitrage window caused by the hiked tariff and falling freight cost for supertankers.
Major investment banks expect Brent and WTI prices to slide in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 amid a growing market oversupply. Banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan see Brent prices averaging $63.57 per barrel in the fourth quarter.