The recent drop in petrol prices across Nigeria has been attributed to increased domestic refining by Dangote Refinery, a strengthening naira, and improved supply chain efficiency.
Oil marketers say these factors have helped ensure steady supply, subdued smuggling pressures, and brought competitive pricing into the downstream sector easing the burden on Nigerian consumers.
The Dangote Refinery has significantly altered the country’s petroleum product market since it began partial operations, with multiple price cuts recorded through 2025 and a fresh pledge to supply over 1.5 billion litres of petrol monthly beginning in December.
Speaking to Naijaonpoint, the Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed that petrol prices are on a downward trend and attributed this to growing output from the refinery and gains in the naira’s value.
Another marketer, Kingsley Smart, who manages a fuel distribution company in Abuja, explained that supply-side improvements have eliminated scarcity and stabilized the market.
He also highlighted how both NNPC and Dangote had reduced their depot prices in response to broader market dynamics, including a mild drop in international crude prices.
Dangote Refinery, for its part, has continued to adjust prices downward throughout the year.
In August 2025, petrol sold for around N850 per litre, later dropping to N820, and in November, the refinery further cut its gantry price to N828 and reduced coastal prices from N854 to N806 per litre.
However, reports that a government reversal of the 15% import tariff on petrol triggered these price cuts were flatly denied by the refinery.
In a November 17 report, the company stated that its pricing strategy was internally driven, based on production efficiency and competitive market positioning.
This statement was also supported by actions on the ground, as independent marketers began adjusting pump prices to match and in some cases, undercut Dangote’s pricing.
Reinforcing its commitment to national fuel sufficiency, the Dangote Group on December 1 pledged to supply 1.5 billion litres of petrol monthly from its Lagos-based refinery.
This move, announced by company management, is part of efforts to deepen local production and wean Nigeria off fuel imports permanently.
The development followed earlier expressions of full government support, including the Federal Executive Council’s (FEC) October endorsement of the refinery’s scale-up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) — aimed at meeting local and regional demand.
Despite the progress, Dangote has warned that petrol smuggling remains a threat to domestic fuel stability.
During a press briefing after meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the State House in Abuja, Aliko Dangote acknowledged that regional price disparities continue to incentivize smuggling.
During a press briefing after meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the State House in Abuja, Aliko Dangote acknowledged that regional price disparities continue to incentivize smuggling.
To tackle this, the Nigerian government has intensified border enforcement, especially in the northern axis.
According to IPMAN’s Ukadike, efforts like “Operation Whirlwind”, spearheaded by the National Security Adviser (NSA) and Nigeria Customs, have improved border security.
Ukadike also pointed out that Dangote Refinery is already exporting products legally to neighbouring countries, offering a sustainable alternative to black-market trade.
He added that independent marketers now operate extended hours, even into late nights, reflecting greater supply confidence.