Nigeria’s federal government, under the administration of Bola Tinubu, is on course to spend more than N91 trillion on debt service between 2023 and 2028.
The size of debts highlights the mounting cost of public borrowing amid persistently weak revenue performance.
This estimate is based on a review of debt service provisions in the 2023 and 2024 budgets, the 2025 Appropriation Act, and forward projections contained in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2026–2028.
The scale of projected debt service also reflects a combination of rising fiscal deficits, a rapidly expanding debt stock, and elevated interest rates—conditions that have intensified since 2023.
Federal Government debt service obligations have risen sharply in both budgeted and actual terms.
If this trajectory holds, actual spending will once again surpass the full-year estimate.
While the government plans to spend N114.8 trillion on capital expenditure over the same period, actual capital releases have consistently fallen behind debt service payments.
This suggests that capital projects are once again bearing the brunt of fiscal pressure as debt obligations take priority.
Nigeria’s rising debt service burden is fundamentally linked to weak and volatile government revenues, which have failed to keep pace with spending ambitions.
If this trend persists, Nigeria risks ending the year with a significantly higher debt service-to-revenue ratio, a key signal of fiscal stress.
Beyond revenue shortfalls, Nigeria’s debt service costs are being amplified by a growing debt stock and elevated borrowing costs.
This significantly increases interest costs on new and refinanced debt.
Nigeria is increasingly locked into a fiscal structure where debt service grows faster than revenue.
Thus, crowding out capital spending and limiting the government’s ability to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and productivity-enhancing sectors.
Unless revenue reforms deliver sustained gains—or borrowing costs fall meaningfully, debt service is likely to remain the single largest claim on public finances throughout the current administration’s tenure.