Analysts at Meristem Research anticipates that monthly inflation will increase, indicating stronger demand during the festive season, elevated fuel and transportation costs, and a reduction in supply as harvest output diminishes.
This forecast was contained in its Macro and Market Insight report for November 2025, where it noted that domestic economy recorded further improvement in the review month, with key macroeconomic indicators extending their positive momentum.
“Inflation fell for the seventh consecutive month to 16.05% YoY, driven by declines in both food and core components, and prompting a sustained dovish stance from the Monetary Policy Committee. Real sector activity also remained firmly in expansion, as reflected by the Purchasing
Managers’ Index rising to a year high of 55.40pts. These improving conditions also gained international recognition, with S&P Global upgrading Nigeria’s outlook, a move that could bolster investor confidence in the economy.”
While inflation appeared to moderate year-on-year, Meristem noted that on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation edged up to 0.93 per cent in October 2025 compared to 0.73 per cent month-on-month in September, adding that food inflation, however, contracted by -0.37 per cent month-on-month (versus -1.57 per cent in the previous month) as the harvest season began to taper and demand pressures gradually reemerged ahead of the festive
period.
The analysts forecast that year-on-year disinflation trend will extend into November 2025, driven by a further easing of food price pressures as ongoing harvests sustain food supply.
“Core inflation should also remain broadly stable, supported by a steady exchange rate, which should contain import costs,” it said in the report.
Yet, it added that, “monthly inflation is likely to tick up, reflecting stronger festive-season demand, higher fuel and transport costs, and tightening supply as the harvest output taper off.
“We also highlight the risk of a temporary spike in the December 2025 reading, largely due to base effects, with December 2024 serving as the comparison period under the new methodology.”
Looking forward, Meristem expects the Nigerian economy to sustain its strong momentum over the near to medium term, following the 3.98 per cent growth seen in the third quarter of the year.
“In the short term, growth should be supported by policy measures designed to reduce import costs, alongside strong domestic demand. Additionally, the services and industrial sectors, particularly manufacturing, entertainment, hospitality, and restaurants, are likely to benefit from festive demand. Overall, robust domestic consumption is expected to anchor continuous expansion, supporting a steady GDP growth trajectory.”