Nigeria’s inflation story in 2025 is taking an unusual turn because, for the first time in nearly a decade, the country is witnessing a meaningful and sustained slowdown in consumer prices.
This is according to 10 years inflation data as analyzed by Naijaonpoint Research for the periods January to July.
The data shows headline inflation has dropped from 24.5% in January 2025 to 21.9% in July 2025, a decline of 2.6 percentage points in just seven months.
In relative terms, that is a 10.7% reduction compared to the January level, a pace of disinflation rarely seen in Nigeria’s modern economic history.
For much of the last decade, inflation has moved upward through the first half of the year, reflecting seasonal food demand, fuel pricing adjustments, and currency weakness.
From 2020 to 2024, January-to-July figures tell a familiar story of acceleration:
Against this backdrop, 2025’s reversal stands out. Instead of climbing, inflation has steadily declined month after month (with the exception of a brief uptick in March), ending July below 22%, the first time in 16 months that headline inflation has fallen that low.
The turning point came in January 2025, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The technical adjustment, which involved changes to the CPI basket and weights, sharply reset inflation to 24.5%, down from December 2024’s record 34.8%.
Looking back, the scale of Nigeria’s mid-year disinflation in 2025 is striking.
By these standards, 2025’s disinflation is unusual. The only comparable periods were 2017 and 2018, but today’s slowdown is more significant in context: it is happening after an inflationary peak, not after a recession.
While the NBS defended the move as a necessary update to reflect changing consumption patterns, the decision was controversial.
Critics argued that the methodology lacked transparency and that the sudden drop in headline inflation distorted the true cost-of-living crisis.
Opposition figures and independent analysts noted that many Nigerians still faced soaring food, rent, and transport costs, realities that the new CPI seemed to understate.
While disinflation dominates the official narrative, many households still face a daily reality of stubbornly high prices.
Nigeria’s inflation deceleration in 2025 is being shaped by four key factors:
Nigeria’s inflation deceleration in 2025 is being shaped by four key factors:
At 21.9%, inflation remains punishing. Food inflation is above 30%, transport costs are sticky, and real wages lag, meaning the difference between 24.5% and 21.9% hardly eases daily strain.
Prices are still climbing, just more slowly, according to official remarks. The real test will, however, come in Q4, when festive demand, year-end government spending, and shifts in oil prices or FX flows could reverse some gains.
Still, analysts expect inflation to settle around 19–20% by December if reforms hold, marking one of the fastest mid-year slowdowns in Nigeria’s history.