Doubts, optimism surround Nigeria’s latest 3.84% GDP growth figures 

While some view the reported 3.84% year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 2024 as a positive sign of economic resilience, others question whether it reflects real improvements in living standards and business conditions.

The report indicates that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.84% in real terms, an improvement from 3.46% recorded in the same period of 2023 and the preceding quarter.

The Services sector emerged as the primary driver of growth, expanding by 5.37% and contributing 57.38% to the country’s GDP.

“One good thing about the Q4 GDP report was the recovery of the petroleum refining sector from decades of recession to a positive GDP growth of an impressive 9.6%. This was one of the best performances among the strategic sectors of the economy, attributed to the commencement of refining operations by the Dangote Refinery and the NNPC refineries,” Dr. Malari stated.

“A 3.84% GDP growth is a positive sign, especially as Nigeria navigates economic challenges. The key question is whether this growth translates into real improvements in living standards, job creation, and inflation control,” Maiyaki said

“It is not an inclusive growth because of the widening gap between the rich and the poor, coupled with the growing level of hunger and human misery in Nigeria since Tinubu came on board as the president,” he tweeted on X (formerly Twitter)

“The economy was driven by the service sector, but the Service PMI entered the contraction zone just last week. I don’t understand this data at all because what I’m experiencing in real life from the service sector does not align with this report,” he said.

“There are a lot of gaps to be covered on all levels Manufacturing, Agric, trade and construction GDP are all growing but very slowly. We need it like mad to get at least 5% real GDP growth,” Kalu stated.

Adding to the debate, Atedo Peterside, founder of Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, earlier called on the NBS to prioritize trust and credibility in its data collection and reporting.

“The rebasing happens once in a while in most economies. Part of the problem we have here is that there is a trust deficit. The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics said they changed how they compute unemployment, and all of a sudden, we realized that we are almost attaining full employment in Nigeria. Sometimes, it’s garbage in, garbage out,” Peterside warned.

While acknowledging the need for GDP rebasing, he stressed the importance of credibility in economic data.

“I was on the Economic Management Team of Jonathan when the GDP was rebased. But there was credibility then. The head of the NBS had already established credibility. There was no trust deficit. People could at least listen,” Peterside added.

Investment experts remain cautiously optimistic about Nigeria’s economic trajectory. Onyinyechi Onwubu, Investment Advisor at FCSL Asset Management, expects GDP growth to remain steady.

“We expect increased commercial activities due to the festive period in the latter part of the period to drive the Q4 2024 GDP to hover between 3.5% to 3.6% levels. The average GDP growth rate for 2024 is, however, expected to come in lower than this,” Onwubu noted.

Moyosore Onanuga, Head of Investments at AIICO, projects Q4 GDP growth to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, driven primarily by increased demand during the festive season and a trade surplus. The services sector is expected to continue as the primary driver of economic expansion.

Moyosore Onanuga, Head of Investments at AIICO, projects Q4 GDP growth to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, driven primarily by increased demand during the festive season and a trade surplus. The services sector is expected to continue as the primary driver of economic expansion.

Naijaonpoint earlier reported that several factors contributed to the Q4 2024 GDP growth: