El-Rufai’s Defection Sparks Political Realignments, Divides Northern, Southern Leaders

The defection of former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has triggered fresh political permutations, with analysts speculating on his potential alliance with a southern candidate in the 2027 presidential election.

While El-Rufai cited a lack of internal democracy in the APC as part of his reasons for leaving, political stakeholders remain divided on what his move means for the opposition.

Reacting to the development,  Northern Elders Forum (NEF) member, Suleiman Abdul-Aziz, in an interview with Vanguard dismissed El-Rufai’s defection as self-serving rather than a push for national interest.

Abdul-Aziz said, “As northern leaders, we view this move with a critical lens, recognizing it as not merely a shift in party affiliation but as an attempt to manipulate the political consciousness of a region whose leaders El-Rufai has, at times, disparaged. El-Rufai’s political journey has been marked by a series of controversial statements and actions that have often undermined the very leaders of the North he now seeks to rally.

“His past criticisms of northern leaders, whom he has accused of ineffectiveness and corruption, now seem hypocritical as he attempts to position himself as a champion of northern interests. By aligning himself with the SDP, a party that has struggled to gain traction in recent years, El-Rufai may be attempting to carve out a niche for himself as a unifying figure who transcends the traditional North-South divide. Such a strategy could resonate with voters disillusioned by the APC’s internal conflicts and the perceived failures of the current administration.

“El-Rufai’s defection, therefore, is not merely a personal decision but one that could significantly impact the political consciousness of the region. By attempting to rebrand himself as a leader who can bridge divides, El-Rufai risks underestimating the intelligence and awareness of northern constituents, who are increasingly discerning about the motivations of their leaders.

“Leaders who have historically marginalized their constituents or undermined the traditional power structures are viewed with skepticism. El-Rufai’s past actions, including his often abrasive rhetoric and controversial policies, may hinder his ability to effectively connect with the very people he now seeks to represent.”

However, Igbo National Council (INC) said El-Rufai’s defection from All Progressives Congress (APC) may not be consequential, saying it was driven by personal interest.

Naijaonpoint reports that the President of INC, Chilos Godsent, told Sunday Vanguard, “One of his reasons was that El-Rufai was not an opposition figure rather an aggrieved member.

“The defection does not have any weight. It is based on interest. It is not about good governance. It is not about the ideological reshaping of Nigeria’s political participation.

“It is about economic and political interest inclined by political elites. They are just the same. They can’t do what the system is currently doing now.

“It is not as if they have anything politically or economically better than what is on the ground. El-Rufai is not an opposition figure. So, he cannot gather such momentum. He is just among aggrieved members.”

Also speaking, former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, said, “There is nothing new in what El-Rufai has done.

“This is because every government loses some old friends and gains some new friends. In the final analysis, it is the net effect that matters most. In Nigeria, such defections and cross-carpeting of politicians have never won elections except Buhari, who won under APC. His victory is attributed largely to his charisma and mass appeal in the North, which was more or less cult followership, which was largely complemented by Bola Tinubu, who provided the spread needed to satisfy the law for anybody to become an elected president.

“Though former El-Rufai has hammered on the need for opposition parties to bury their differences in favor of a sturdy political party that can provide a viable opposition as an alternative platform is crucial. However, the personal differences among the leaders of the emerging opposition may constitute a hindrance to the provision of a formidable opposition that can unseat an incumbent.

“That is why I am not sure the emerging opposition parties would have a Buhari and a Bola Tinubu who can confront the ruling APC and unseat it. All the same, El-Rufai is at liberty to present himself against the incumbent if he thinks he has what it takes to unseat the APC. Recall that former VP Atiku tried it in 2019 to no avail.”

In his submission, Mohammed Talban Shika said El-Rufai has transformed himself into a force to reckon with in Nigerian politics. He said the defection to the SDP has triggered a mass movement to the party in Kaduna, Zamfara, and Yobe.

He added that the population in the SDP continued to increase right from the day El-Rufai joined the party, a development that was causing serious hiccups in the APC, even though they allegedly pretended all was well.

On his part, National President of the South-South Leaders Forum, Godson Ibrede, said the former Kaduna State leader has what it takes to revive the opposition.

His words: “El-Rufai may not be liked by many people, but that doesn’t take away the fact that he is a strong and popular politician who has associates across the country. He can lead a mass movement that would put an end to the APC’s destruction of Nigeria. Let’s give him a chance and not write him off. All he needs to do is to be consistent as an opposition figure.”