THIS quote, attributed to Niccolò Machiavelli—the Italian philosopher and author of The Prince, one of the most influential treatises on political leadership—aptly captures the current dynamics of Nigeria’s political landscape as the race toward the 2027 general elections intensifies.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is seeking re-election in 2027, appears to be playing the role of the fox—working strategically behind the scenes to position the All Progressives Congress (APC) for continued dominance. In contrast, those behind the newly energised political platform, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), have been loudly positioning themselves as the lions—determined to remove Tinubu from office through the ballot box in 2027. In the context of Machiavelli’s analogy, that makes them the lion, while Tinubu remains the calculating fox.
And here’s why.
About four weeks ago, at the Yar’adua Centre in Abuja, the ADC announced its emergence as a reinvigorated opposition force. What occurred was, in business parlance—though not officially labelled as such—an acquisition rather than a merger, which was the model used in the formation of the APC. In ADC’s case, a significant number of political heavyweights from various opposition parties chose to join the existing ADC structure, which has been around since 2006 when it was founded rather than dissolve their parties entirely into a new platform.
This is a different approach from February 2013, when three major parties—ACN, CPC, and ANPP—along with a splinter faction of the then-ruling PDP (nPDP), merged to form the APC. The current ADC reformation, however, is being powered by politicians who have been displaced from their former comfort zones (some of whom are founders of the very parties they have now abandoned). These individuals have now found a new home in ADC and hope to stage a political comeback through it.
Clearly, just as APC was the vehicle that led it to victory in 2015, the new-look ADC aspires to replicate that feat in 2027. However, life is dynamic, and past strategies may no longer be sufficient for tackling present-day challenges. Attempting to replicate APC’s 2015 strategy may be akin to going into modern warfare with bayonets and arrows while the adversary is armed with drones and stealth bombers.
Unless the coalition forming around ADC has more advanced and undisclosed strategies, it appears likely that they will make a splash—but not a dent—against a ruling party that has planted seeds of policy and infrastructure that are beginning to bear visible fruit.
One key distinction between the APC’s emergence ahead of the 2015 elections and ADC’s current positioning for 2027 lies in the method of formation. While APC was created through a formal merger, ADC’s new posture stems from what amounts to a political acquisition of an existing party—one that was already a going concern.
Initially, the new opposition coalition had contemplated launching a fresh platform—tentatively named the African Democratic Alliance (ADA). But in a move that surprised many Nigerians, they opted instead to persuade ADC’s leadership to hand over the reins of the party to them.
Given the unfolding crisis within the Social Democratic Party (SDP)—which recently expelled former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and imposed a 30-year ban just months after he publicly joined the party—one is left to wonder whether the political heavyweights who have now seized the ADC platform might soon face a similar fate. It was presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga who irreverently dubbed these politicians “Internally Displaced Politicians” (IDPs), a name that is already sticking.
It’s also worth noting that ADC, in its previous form, was not a major political force in terms of voter strength. For instance, its 2023 presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, secured only 81,919 votes—compared to Bola Tinubu’s 8,794,726 votes, Atiku Abubakar’s 6,984,520, and Peter Obi’s 6,101,533.
In summary, while ADC may have entered the ring with loud declarations and revived energy, it remains to be seen whether it is playing a strategic game of chess—or merely checkers against a grandmaster.
Also, the ADC has only two (2) members elected into the National Assembly (NASS), and no elected officials even at the ward level.
So, why did the aggrieved politicians seeking a new political platform choose to berth in the ADC, rather than register and organically grow the now-rested African Democratic Alliance (ADA), which they had once romanticized and fantasized about? I guess the answer remains in the belly of time.
With the ADC now effectively acquired by these new powerbrokers, a new leadership structure has been constituted on an interim basis—akin to forming a management team and board of directors in the private sector. At the helm is Senator David Mark, a former Senate President, as Chairman, with former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola serving as Secretary.
Clearly, this restructuring is a strategic move designed to mount a serious challenge in the 2027 general elections and ultimately unseat the incumbent president, Bola Tinubu.
But the target is not standing idle.
In preparation for the political battle ahead—particularly against opposition elements both within and outside the APC—the ruling party has moved decisively. It swiftly removed its former chairman, Dr. Umar Ganduje, and replaced him with Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, the current Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation. His appointment was resoundingly accepted, having been selected by the top leadership of the party without the kind of rancor that often accompanies such transitions in other parties.
When one contrasts the seamless change in APC’s leadership with the chaos that surrounded the PDP’s multiple failed attempts to remove its former chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, back in 2022/23, the leadership acumen of APC’s political helmsman, President Bola Tinubu, stands out in stark relief.
By and large, the PDP—and to a significant extent, the Labour Party (LP)—have been weakened by internal leadership failures. This erosion has diminished both parties and their leadership, while the APC’s relative stability has strengthened its institutional structure and further elevated the organisational prowess of its leadership. As the character Eneke the bird famously declared in a popular Igbo folklore: “Since men have learnt to shoot without missing, I have learnt to fly without perching.”
Apparently, the APC has learned valuable lessons from its early criticisms—particularly the view that it was a party formed by “strange bedfellows.” Rather than ignore or marginalise dissenting voices, the party now appears to prioritise negotiation and inclusion. This approach has significantly reduced the kind of destructive internal conflicts that have plagued opposition parties.
Arising from the above, there is little doubt that APC has become adept at conflict avoidance. The peaceful exit of its former chairman, Ganduje, and the strategic installation of a much younger and capable candidate from Nigeria’s Middle Belt region—as a gesture to satisfy a critical voting bloc—is a testament to that maturity. Conversely, the PDP and LP’s lack of visionary leadership has left both parties in turmoil, bleeding members like a person suffering a ruptured artery.
Take the PDP, for instance. What if Iyorchia Ayu had been persuaded to step down as chairman to address the valid concerns of party members who believed that both the chairmanship and presidential ticket should not be zoned to the North?
Instead, the party plunged into the 2023 general election as a divided house, paying a catastrophic political price. That election disaster has since been the party’s undoing, throwing it into a spiral of crises and reducing it to a pale shadow of its former self.
In sharp contrast, the APC has demonstrated resilience and staying power. It is, without doubt, a party poised to retain power in the 2027 elections—unless unforeseen developments dramatically change the current trajectory.
Ironically, it is the dysfunction of the PDP and the internal divisions within the LP—whose presidential candidates in the 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, were first and second runners-up to Bola Tinubu—that have turned their key figures into what presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga irreverently described as Internally Displaced Politicians (IDPs). These political refugees have now anchored themselves in the ADC, which may appear to be a political oasis but is, in reality, a holding bay for dislocated political actors.
Even more ironic is the fact that some of the very leaders who once founded and built these faltering political parties are now the ones abandoning ship. While a few have opted to sail or sink politically with the PDP, others—disillusioned and stripped of influence—have fled the parties they once helped create. Now adrift, they resemble wandering spirits seeking shelter, having destroyed the homes they once proudly called their own.
ADC, PDP, and the Art of Political Chess: Tinubu’s Strategic Advantage
It is significant to note that the glaring leadership failures in Nigeria’s opposition parties have inadvertently helped to underscore the value of internal discipline within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), especially under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Since the party’s founding in February 2013, President Tinubu has made discipline and party cohesion the cornerstone of APC’s political architecture—ensuring it remains intact and indestructible for over a decade.
In my view, this is precisely why the APC continues to grow stronger, while its main rivals—the PDP and LP—have experienced steady decline.