FCMB Group Plc has projected a profit after tax (PAT) of N58.8 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, according to its latest filing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The earnings forecast, a regulatory requirement for listed companies, provides investors with a forward view of expected performance and offers insights into how the bank is positioning itself ahead of a challenging operating environment.
If achieved, this projection would push FCMB’s full-year profits to N171.5 billion, more than double the N73 billion reported in the 2024 financial year.
A look back at the bank’s performance this year reveals a consistent pattern of beating its own projections.
This track record suggests that its Q4 forecast of N58.8 billion may be conservative, potentially providing more upside for shareholders.
On the revenue side, the lender expects gross earnings of N265.2 billion in Q4, with interest income contributing N231.8 billion.
One of the major challenges FCMB faced this year was the expiry of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) loan forbearance regime, which forced banks to fully recognize previously deferred impairments.
“Net impairment loss on financial assets grew by 180% QoQ to N36.2 billion for the period ended June 2025 as our Nigerian Banking subsidiary exited the CBN loan forbearance, which resulted in a growth in cost of risk to 2.8% from 1.8% recorded for FY 2024.”
Like other Nigerian banks, FCMB faces a recapitalization deadline from the CBN.
This additional buffer leaves FCMB better positioned than many of its peers, but the need for further fundraising could bring shareholder dilution risks in the short term.
At a share price of N10.5 per share, FCMB trades at what appears to be a steep discount relative to earnings.
If the bank delivers on its Q4 forecast, its forward EPS could strengthen its case as a “value play” in Nigeria’s banking sector, particularly for investors comfortable with potential equity dilution in the coming capital raise.