Five members of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 50-basis-point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate at the November 2025 meeting, citing sustained disinflation, improving external buffers, and resilient economic growth.
This is according to their personal statements published by the apex bank on Wednesday.
The five dissenting members, representing 41.7% of the 12-member committee, proposed lowering the MPR from 27.0% to 26.5%, alongside an adjustment of the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450 basis points, while retaining all other prudential parameters.
However, the MPC ultimately voted by majority to retain the policy rate at 27.0%, reflecting continued caution over inflation risks despite recent macroeconomic improvements.
A member of the MPC, Aku Pauline Odinkemelu, argued that Nigeria’s disinflation process had become “entrenched and broad-based,” pointing to seven consecutive months of headline inflation slowdown, improved food supply conditions, and external reserve accumulation.
She maintained that a modest rate cut would support productive sector recovery without undermining price stability, especially with tight liquidity controls still in place.
Another MPC member, Aloysius Uche Ordu, anchored his vote on both global and domestic trends, noting that several advanced and emerging market central banks had begun cautious easing cycles amid moderating inflation. He cited Nigeria’s improved external position, stronger capital inflows, stable exchange rate, and declining inflation as justification for a calibrated reduction rather than aggressive loosening.
Also, Bandele A. G. Amoo supported easing to address weak credit transmission to the real economy. While acknowledging continued inflation risks, he argued that a small policy rate cut, reinforced by strict cash reserve requirements, could encourage banks to lend more effectively to productive sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, especially ahead of seasonal demand pressures.
Former Director General of the Securities & Exchange Commission and a current MPC member, Lamido Abubakar Yuguda described the case for easing as “compelling,” citing significant progress in inflation moderation, robust non-oil sector growth, and improving foreign reserves.
He stressed that the proposed rate cut was modest and forward-looking, designed to consolidate growth momentum while preserving monetary discipline through tight reserve and liquidity ratios.
Another MPC member, Murtala Sabo Sagagi framed his vote around growth and liquidity dynamics, noting that the lagged effects of earlier tightening were already delivering results. He argued that a calibrated reduction would help stimulate inclusive growth while the asymmetric corridor would prevent excess liquidity from destabilising the exchange rate or reigniting inflation.
Despite differences on the MPR, all five members were aligned on retaining other key policy tools. They supported keeping the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45% for deposit money banks, 16% for merchant banks, and 75% on non-TSA public sector deposits, alongside maintaining the Liquidity Ratio at 30%.
They also endorsed narrowing the standing facilities corridor to +50/-450 basis points, arguing that the structure would discourage banks from parking idle funds at the CBN and instead promote interbank activity and real-sector lending.
The majority of MPC members opted to retain the MPR at 27%, emphasising the need to sustain the gains from previous tightening, especially with inflation still in double digits and fiscal-driven liquidity risks looming.
The Committee noted that while headline inflation had eased to 16.05% in October 2025, risks remained from seasonal spending, election-related fiscal pressures, and potential exchange-rate shocks. Maintaining the current stance, the MPC said, would allow the full transmission of earlier policy actions while anchoring inflation expectations.
The voting pattern reveals a growing internal debate within the MPC as macroeconomic conditions improve. While the majority remains firmly cautious, the sizeable minority advocating easing suggests that future meetings could tilt toward gradual rate cuts if disinflation persists and external stability holds.
The voting pattern reveals a growing internal debate within the MPC as macroeconomic conditions improve. While the majority remains firmly cautious, the sizeable minority advocating easing suggests that future meetings could tilt toward gradual rate cuts if disinflation persists and external stability holds.
For now, the decision shows the CBN’s preference for policy credibility over premature easing, even as nearly half of the committee signalled readiness for a cautious pivot toward growth support.
The next MPC meeting is scheduled for February 23 and 24, 2026, with analysts projecting for a rate cut as inflation settled at 15.15% in December 2025.