December 2025 has delivered a familiar but striking story for Lagos households; the festive season demand has collided with tightening supply, pushing prices of most food items sharply higher across major markets.
Compared to November, price movements in December were overwhelmingly upward, reflecting increased household consumption, higher logistics costs, and trader speculation typical of the end-of-year period.
Based on the latest Lagos market survey, out of the 70 tracked food items, 49 increased, 18 declined, and 3 were flat in December against November 2025, meaning 69.0% of items rose, 25.4% fell, and 5.6% were unchanged.
The breadth of price increases suggests that the modest relief seen in November has largely evaporated, reinforcing how fragile food affordability remains for urban consumers.
The December market survey, conducted across four major markets—Mushin, Mile 2, Daleko, and Oyingbo market confirm that seasonality remains a powerful inflation driver in Lagos, often overriding broader macro improvements such as harvest inflows or temporary fuel price relief.
According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline and food inflation moderated to 14.45% year-onyear (YoY) and 11.08% (YoY) in November 2025, respectively, while Lagos food inflation eased to 13.6% (YoY) from 14.76% (YoY), reflecting broad market moderation.
However, this ease may not reflect in December as prices of items as observed in the December survey are driven by renewed increases in fresh food, tubers, and protein items.
Price increases in December were broad-based, cutting across fresh produce, staples, proteins, oils, and processed foods, such as:
Other notable increases:
Traders attribute the surge to reduced inflows from the North, spoilage risks during transportation, and heavy festive buying by households and food vendors.
Fish sellers report that cold-chain costs and weaker supply from coastal hubs compounded festive demand.
The increases in oils, flours and processed staples point to continued input cost pass-through, including packaging, transportation, and financing costs.
Despite the festive inflation wave, according to our survey, 18 items recorded price declines, mostly among processed goods and selected staples:
Notably, prices of noodles and tea also recorded marginal price reductions
However, a small group of items (about 4 in total) showed minimal or no movement, mainly niche processed products where pricing is tightly controlled by manufacturers and demand elasticity is limited, such as a basket of potatoes, a bag of white and oloyin beans, etc.
For many Lagos residents, December shopping has become an exercise in prioritization rather than abundance.
“Once December starts, pepper becomes gold,” “Northern trucks are fewer, and drivers are charging more for fuel and trips. Pepper jumped to N85,000 per big bag; if supply improves after Christmas, it should calm down.”
“Chicken lap and turkey cartons moved fast. Feed is still expensive, diesel for cold rooms too.”
“Some companies reduced prices to attract Christmas buyers,”“But foodstuffs that people cook fresh are the ones expensive now.”
“People who postponed buying yam in November rushed back in December,” “That sudden demand pushed prices up quickly.”
“There are varieties of ogbono in the market ranging from Nsukka to Cameroun and Benue ogbono, which is reflected in their price difference. For instance, a big bag of Nsukka ogbono costs N330,000 because of its nutritional value, while the regular Cameroun is selling for N300,000.” “It is best to know what you are buying to avoid buying the wrong one for a high cost.”
The Naijaonpoint Food Price Watch is a monthly market survey tracking the prices of major food items across Nigeria.
This report specifically covers four key markets in Lagos State: Mushin Market, Daleko Market, Oyingbo Market, and Mile 12 Market.
The survey provides up-to-date insights into food price trends, helping businesses, policymakers, and consumers make informed decisions.