In 2026, Nigeria’s banking industry is expected to enter a forced round of mergers and acquisitions, as lenders scramble to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation deadline.
According to SBM Intelligence, consolidation will be a defining feature of the banking landscape in 2026, driven largely by capital shortfalls across parts of the sector.
The firm noted in its 2026 Outlook Report that “a forced round of mergers and acquisitions will occur due to the banking recapitalisation deadline, with some banks failing to meet requirements.”
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In November 2025, CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso disclosed that 16 banks had fully complied
with the recapitalisation directive. While he did not name the banks, a review by BusinessDay provides clarity. Three of the seven banks with international licences had already met the N500 billion minimum paid-up share capital requirement. They are Access Bank, GTBank, and Zenith Bank.
UBA is also expected to cross the threshold following its N157.8 billion rights issue. For FCMB, however, the situation is tighter. Despite its recently concluded N160 billion public offer, the bank remains short of the target. Even if the offer is fully subscribed, FCMB would still require about N52 billion to reach the N500 billion benchmark.
The bank has, however, hinted at plans to divest minority stakes in some of its non-banking subsidiaries as part of efforts to bridge the gap and complete its recapitalisation programme.
For Fidelity Bank, a private placement of 20 billion shares remains under consideration. Although shareholders approved the private placement in February 2025, the bank has yet to take concrete steps to execute the plan. First Holdco, on its part, raised N150 billion through a 2024 rights issue, pushing its share capital to N398 billion. Market expectations suggest that proceeds from the planned sale of FBNQuest Merchant Bank could be channelled into the recapitalisation of First Bank of Nigeria. Beyond this, forced mergers are increasingly coming into view among banks operating with national licences.
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Among this group, Wema Bank, Globus Bank, Premium Trust Bank, Stanbic IBTC, and Standard Chartered have already met the N200 billion minimum share capital requirement. Sterling Bank is awaiting regulatory approval to conclude its recapitalisation, as its N88 billion public offer is expected to comfortably cover its N43 billion capital shortfall.
Within Sterling Holdco, its non-interest subsidiary, Alt Bank, is also progressing with its recapitalisation drive. The bank initially received a N5 billion capital injection from the N73.86 billion raised in Sterling’s 2024 rights issue. Following the completion of its public offer, further capital injections into Alt Bank are expected.
The banking industry has already witnessed the first major consolidation, with Union Bank merging with Titan Trust Bank. Based on publicly available financial records, the combined share capital of the two banks stands at N177.3 billion, leaving a deficit of N22.7 billion. However, these figures are drawn from Titan Trust’s 2021 records and Union Bank’s 2024 accounts, suggesting the actual position may have evolved.
Providus Bank is next in line, with plans to merge with Unity Bank. Once completed, the transaction is expected to create the ninth-largest bank in Nigeria by asset size and branch network.
Some banks, however, are opting for strategic realignments rather than outright mergers. Nova Bank, for instance, has downgraded its licence to a regional banking licence, which carries a lower minimum capital requirement of N50 billion.
Among Nigeria’s 14 national banks, the recapitalisation strategies of Keystone Bank and Polaris Bank remain unclear, with no definitive public disclosures on how they intend to meet the new capital thresholds.
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Beyond capital adequacy, SBM also projects that the CBN will further tighten prudential, risk management, and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. This reflects the regulator’s broader push to strengthen financial system stability and align Nigerian banks more closely with global supervisory standards.
Given Nigeria’s recent removal from the FATF Greylist, it is projected that the CBN would work towards reducing vulnerabilities related to illicit financial flows, and foreign exchange compliance.
As a result, SBM projects that banks are likely to face rising compliance and operational costs, particularly around transaction monitoring, reporting systems, and senior compliance staffing.
In line with this trend, Jaiz Bank recently announced the appointment of Tukur Galadima as its Chief Compliance Officer. Galadima previously served as an Assistant Director at the CBN until 2024. The move underscores the premium banks are placing on regulatory expertise as supervision intensifies.