Nigeria’s economic performance in 2026 will be shaped as much by global forces as by domestic reforms, with slower growth, fragile trade flows, and elevated geopolitical risks expected to influence fiscal revenues and investor sentiment.
According to PwC’s 2026 Nigeria Economic Outlook, global economic growth is projected to ease to about 3.1 percent in 2026, while global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow sharply to around 0.5 percent, reflecting weaker demand and subdued consumption across major economies.
The slowdown in global trade is likely to constrain Nigeria’s non-oil export expansion, reinforcing the country’s continued reliance on oil earnings and capital inflows as key drivers of growth.
The report notes that while service activity remains resilient globally, weak manufacturing output and inventory adjustments are limiting goods demand, reducing opportunities for export-led growth among frontier markets such as Nigeria.
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Global financial conditions are expected to ease gradually in 2026 as major central banks begin cautious policy adjustments.
For Nigeria, a gradual easing in global rates could support refinancing conditions and reduce immediate external funding pressure. Yet tariff uncertainty and renewed trade protectionism may still disrupt investment flows, tighten FX liquidity, and amplify imported inflation risks. As a result, foreign capital inflows into Nigeria are expected to remain selective and reform-dependent, favouring periods of policy credibility and macroeconomic stability.
Geopolitical tensions remain a major source of uncertainty for global energy markets. “Oil prices are projected to soften in 2026 to the $55 per barrel range, reflecting weaker demand growth and rising global inventories, subject to escalation risks,’’ PWC says
Lower oil prices would weaken Nigeria’s fiscal revenues and foreign exchange inflows, heightening budgetary pressures at a time when debt service already absorbs a significant share of government revenue. The report highlights that geopolitical shocks, including conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, could also disrupt trade routes, raise freight and insurance costs, and delay energy investment, further complicating Nigeria’s external position.
Global geopolitical risk levels are expected to remain elevated in 2026, driven by persistent conflicts, global power rivalries and rising protectionism. PwC notes that this environment increases Nigeria’s external vulnerability, particularly through oil price volatility, supply chain disruptions and tighter financial conditions.
Beyond global risks, political instability across parts of West Africa adds another layer of uncertainty. Recent coups and attempted coups in the sub-region raise the risk of sanctions, border restrictions and trade disruptions, which could weaken regional commerce and dampen investor confidence in Nigeria despite ongoing reforms.
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PwC concludes that Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook in 2026 will continue to be shaped by oil market dynamics, capital flows and regional stability, rather than strong global trade momentum. With global growth subdued and financial conditions still tight, the economy’s resilience will depend on maintaining FX stability, strengthening non-oil revenue mobilisation and sustaining reform momentum.
While easing inflation and improving reserves provide some buffers, the report cautions that external shocks — from geopolitics to global trade tensions — remain key downside risks to growth, fiscal stability and exchange rate performance in the year ahead.