Nigeria’s democracy won’t collapse into a one-party system unless the opposition allows it. If the PDP, Labour Party, and ADC show half the strategic ingenuity Tinubu displayed in 2003 when his party, AD, stood alone in the southwest, they could mount a credible challenge. But if they keep lamenting instead of rebuilding, they have only themselves to blame… The APC’s surge… is not magic; it’s the outcome of discipline, daring reforms, and political dexterity. The opposition’s failure, not Tinubu’s ambition, will be the true threat to Nigeria’s democracy
WHEN President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023, he did the unthinkable—ending Nigeria’s four-decade-long petrol subsidy. For years, past leaders from Babangida to Buhari had tiptoed around the issue, fully aware that the subsidy was an unsustainable drain on the nation’s finances. Yet none dared to remove it.
Tinubu did. And in doing so, he lived up to the Latin proverb: “Fortune favors the bold.”
It was a move so sudden that even his own economic team hadn’t scripted it. The aftermath was harsh: skyrocketing fuel prices, inflation, and widespread anger. Instead of a honeymoon, Tinubu walked into a storm. Nigerians, already battered by years of economic decline under Buhari, were in no mood for more pain.
But bold reforms often carry long-term rewards. Alongside unifying the multiple exchange rate windows—a move that devalued the naira but stabilised the market—Tinubu’s decisions have begun to reposition the economy. Two years on, the results are becoming visible, and political fortunes are shifting.
Today, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is swelling like Ijebu garri in water.
For those unfamiliar with Ijebu Garri, it is a beloved snack made from cassava tubers in Nigeria. Governors, senators, and political heavyweights once loyal to the opposition are crossing over. Enugu’s Governor Peter Mbah recently joined the APC, praising Tinubu as “a leader with the courage to make tough choices for lasting prosperity.” Senator Ben Bruce followed suit, echoing similar sentiments.
In essence, Tinubu is now enjoying a delayed honeymoon. His early political isolation is giving way to admiration, even from opponents.
As the saying goes, nothing succeeds like success. And for now, Tinubu’s success — painful as its path has been—is turning the APC into the beautiful bride of Nigerian politics.
Senator Ben Murray-Bruce recently cited his admiration for President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms and leadership style as the reason for joining the All Progressives Congress (APC). His move adds to the growing list of high-profile defections from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), including the governors of Delta, Akwa Ibom, and Enugu states — all of whom have taken their political structures into the ruling party.
In Bayelsa, Governor Douye Diri only last week resigned from the PDP but is yet to formally join the APC — a cautious step that may be driven by legal concerns. Nigeria’s Constitution forbids elected officials from defecting to another party before their term ends unless there’s a clear division within their former party. Having resigned from the PDP, Diri’s opponents argue he may have lost his mandate entirely, since independent candidacy is not recognised under Nigerian law.
The PDP’s troubles, however, run much deeper than individual defections. Since the internal fallout over former President Goodluck Jonathan’s 2015 re-election bid — viewed by many northern members as a “third term” — the party has been locked in perpetual crisis. Once boasting it would rule Nigeria for 60 years, the PDP is now plagued by factionalism, leadership battles, and public infighting between its chairman and secretary as evidenced by the recent open disagreement in court between the chairman and secretary over the appointment of a legal counsel.
Simply put, the party is burning from within
While loyalists like Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi and Seyi Makinde of Oyo insist the PDP retains its grassroots strength, the truth is that internal disunity is tearing it apart. As the proverb goes, a house divided against itself cannot stand.
Meanwhile, the APC, under Tinubu’s firm leadership, is consolidating power like never before. Formed in 2013 from a merger of four ideologically diverse parties, it has evolved into a national powerhouse, dwarfing even the PDP at its peak under Obasanjo.
The contrast is stark: as the PDP implodes, the APC thrives. Tinubu’s political dexterity — and success in holding his coalition together — has turned the ruling party into a magnet for ambitious politicians.
The Labour Party (LP), which briefly electrified young Nigerians during the 2023 elections, is now fading fast. With Peter Obi sidelined and internal coherence lost, the LP is proving to be more of a temporary movement than a sustainable party. Similarly, the newly formed African Democratic Congress (ADC), born from the ashes of the PDP, faces an uncertain future — claiming, perhaps naively, that it will replace the APC in 2027.
But as the saying goes, success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan.
Right now, the APC — buoyed by Tinubu’s audacious reforms and the disarray of its rivals — is the only party that looks firmly in control of Nigeria’s political destiny.
Political spokespersons advising the faithful to tarry in the opposition parties because the electorate will punish the APC during elections and they will take control of Aso Rock Villa the seat of presidential power in 2027 appear to be exhibiting the characteristics of a snake oil salesman.
Typical traits of a snake oil salesman include deceptive marketing, exaggerated claims, lack of evidence, and high-pressure persuasion. Sadly, similar tactics appear to be at play in Nigeria’s political space today — particularly from parties like the PDP and ADC — as the race to Aso Rock in 2027 intensifies.
What are they going to tell the electorate that already believes all politicians in Nigeria are the same as they have no distinctive ideologies differentiating one party from the other. The only difference now is that the man at the helm of affairs in Aso Rock Villa is proving to be a better manager of the economy and polity.
The truth is that the political actors currently leading the ADC are ex-PDP founders and those currently in PDP were once APC members.
So, given the serial disappointments from politicians, Nigerians have tarred all politicians with the same black brush.
By contrast, President Bola Tinubu and the APC rely less on rhetoric and more on results. Headline inflation has fallen to 18%, food inflation is down to 16% — the lowest in over a decade — and Nigeria’s foreign reserves have risen to $43 billion, enough to finance nearly a year of imports. With stability in the economy driving the renewed investor confidence and returning capital flows, it’s no mystery why politicians are gravitating toward the ruling party.
Fears of Nigeria sliding into a one-party state are not new. In 2003, during President Olusegun Obasanjo’s “do-or-die” re-election bid, the PDP captured nearly all southwest states except Lagos, where Tinubu alone stood firm. Yet, even then, Nigeria did not become a one-party state. The same logic applies today — the APC’s dominance stems not from coercion but from Tinubu’s political acumen and results-driven leadership.
Political disarray after losing power is not unique to Nigeria. In the U.S., after the Democrats’ loss to Donald Trump, the party went through deep internal fractures. Similarly, the PDP’s decline began after Obasanjo’s era — worsened by internal feuds, lack of internal democracy, and poor leadership under President Jonathan who contested for a ‘third time’ against the advice of party stalwarts and Waziri Adamawa, Atiku Abubakar who failed to allow the presidency to rotate to the east in 2019 by flying the PDP flag. It also did not help that former president Olusegun Obasanjo, disowned the party when he finished his tenure.
In contrast, Buhari exited the presidency without sabotaging his party, and Tinubu has demonstrated steady hands in managing the APC.
A prime example is the seamless transition from former party chairman Abdullahi Ganduje to Professor Nentawe Yilwatda — a sharp contrast to the PDP’s chaotic ouster of Uche Secondus for Iyorchia Ayu, which deepened its crisis. The PDP’s inability to manage itself reflects a leadership vacuum and the decay of a once-powerful institution.
Humour, as always, finds its way into Nigeria’s politics. One viral joke captured the mood perfectly: beneath a photo of INEC Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan, someone quipped, “By 2027, all politicians will have joined APC — no more elections needed.” It’s funny but telling how Nigerians can turn even serious issues into laughter, a mark of their resilience.
Still, it’s important to remember: Nigeria’s democracy won’t collapse into a one-party system unless the opposition allows it. If the PDP, Labour Party, and ADC show half the strategic ingenuity Tinubu displayed in 2003 when his party, AD, stood alone in the southwest, they could mount a credible challenge. But if they keep lamenting instead of rebuilding, they have only themselves to blame.
The APC’s surge — like Ijebu Garri rising when soaked — is not magic; it’s the outcome of discipline, daring reforms, and political dexterity. The opposition’s failure, not Tinubu’s ambition, will be the true threat to Nigeria’s democracy.
- Magnus Onyibe is an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, and development strategist. He is an alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, USA, a Commonwealth Institute scholar, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He writes from Lagos.