Whether you like it or not, every move by Abuja such as tax tweaks, CBN guidance, PENCOM circulars, NAICOM rules, import policies shows up in your portfolio.
After the turbulence of 2023–2024, the macro backdrop is finally less hostile with headline inflation having eased to 18.02% (Oct 2025), the MPR is 27%, and the naira has strengthened to N1,464/$.
That shift doesn’t just change the market mood; it changes where and how you make money.
Below, we translate some key policy levers into practical plays for retail investors.
Recent tax changes target bigger-ticket capital gains (e.g., aggregate share disposals above N150 million within 12 months) and mean interest on FGN bonds is now taxed.
Two consequences follow:
What matters is how much you take home after paying taxes, so always compare the money you’ll really receive (not just the advertised rate) with what you’d get from things like T-Bills, commercial papers, or stocks that pay dividends.
What to do:
Because the government is spending more than it earns, it has to borrow more money by issuing bonds.
When there are more bonds available, interest rates usually go up for a while.
Combine that with moderating inflation, and you get a sweet spot: attractive nominal yields now, with scope for capital gains later if yields compress as inflation trends lower.
What to do:
NAICOM’s recap push forces insurers to raise equity, merge, or exit. In the short run, capital raises can dilute EPS and pressure prices.
In the medium term, stronger balance sheets enable bigger policy limits, better reinsurance terms, and tech investments—ingredients for ROE rebuild.
What to do:
Keeping rates elevated to stabilise FX has made naira fixed income compelling versus hoarding dollars. A simple comparison:
Keeping rates elevated to stabilise FX has made naira fixed income compelling versus hoarding dollars. A simple comparison:
What to do:
When PENCOM nudges or permits higher equity allocations for pension funds, it creates a structural bid for quality shares.
That supports valuations of profitable large caps and improves liquidity across the board. Even whispers of allocation flexibility can move flows.
What to do:
Tighter import regimes and FX access constraints have forced FMCGs and processors to localise inputs.
Meanwhile, agro-linked businesses with domestic raw materials or backward integration are better insulated from currency swings and port bottlenecks.
What to do:
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