THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 3.9 percent for 2025, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from its earlier estimate.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, unveiled yesterday during the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., the improved outlook stems from stronger macroeconomic stability, renewed investor confidence, and increased oil production.
For 2026, the Fund anticipates further growth of 4.2 percent, marking a 0.9 percentage point rise from its previous projection.
The IMF attributed the optimism to reduced domestic uncertainty and Nigeria’s limited vulnerability to new U.S. trade tariffs, given its modest trade exposure to the American market.
The report noted that Nigeria’s economy has shown notable resilience in recent months, citing an appreciating exchange rate, improved financial conditions, and stronger investor sentiment since July.
“The country’s fiscal stance remains supportive, while higher oil output and improved security around key installations have bolstered the hydrocarbon sector,” the IMF stated. “These factors underpin the stronger growth outlook for Nigeria.”
Additionally, the Fund revised its 2024 growth estimate to 4.1 percent, up by 0.7 percentage points, following the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to include a wider range of economic activities, particularly within the informal sector.
The IMF’s projection comes barely a week after the World Bank predicted Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.4 percent in 2027, driven largely by the services sector, alongside contributions from agriculture and non-oil industries.
In a related presentation titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” the World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, Samer Matta, said inflation is expected to gradually ease but will likely remain elevated, emphasizing the need for monetary discipline and structural reforms to address food prices — described as the “biggest tax on the poor.”
Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged Nigeria and other emerging economies to intensify efforts against illicit financial flows to strengthen governance and investor trust.
“Illicit financial flows — what we call dirty money — undermine stability and public trust,” Georgieva said during a Civil Society Town Hall at the Annual Meetings. “Five to ten years ago, this issue was underestimated; today, it is central to our policy advice and economic analysis.”