Increased Production to Drop Nigeria’s Petrol Deficit by 39%—Kpler

Kpler, a market insights firm focused on the energy and shipping markets, said in a report that increasing output at the Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries throughout 2025 are expected to significantly lengthen not just Nigeria but West Africa’s petroleum (gasoline) balances.

“Increasing refinery runs at Nigeria’s Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries throughout 2025 are expected to significantly lengthen West Africa’s gasoline balances,” the firm said.

It confirmed that the shift will pose challenges for European refiners, with European gasoline exports to Nigeria already dropping to a four-year low of 70,000 barrels per day in December.

Recall that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently said that the increased production of petroleum products by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced the importation of refined products from Europe.

The 650,000 barrels per day Dangote oil refinery built by Nigerian billionaire, Mr Aliko Dangote, in Lagos, had affirmed to compete with European refiners when operating at full capacity.

Although, when it started operations last year, it struggled to secure sufficient crude locally — as production remains below target and tied to contracts with other players by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

Kpler said that following the commissioning of key units within the gasoline block-Reformer, isomerization, RFCC, and Alkylation-this output is reflected in the sharp reduction in residue and naphtha production.

“We estimate that Dangote’s RFCC (the most critical unit for high- volume gasoline production) is currently operating at 40-45% capacity, placing total Nigerian gasoline production at above 100 kbd,” Kpler added.

It wrote that, “Dangote’s fuel oil exports, for instance, fell from 60 kbd in 23 to just 6 kbd in Q4, while naphtha exports also dropped significantly q/q,” adding that, “Achieving higher yields and production volumes will depend on further romping up RFCC unit rates, a milestone antiopated by late 2025.”

Kpler pointed out increased production volumes at Dangote will reduce “Nigeria’s gasoline deficit from -280 kbd in 2024 to -170 kbd in 2025 (and-100 kbd in 2026).”

It explained that while Dangote’s petrol will primarily cater to domestic markets, the refinery is also poised to become a major suppler across Western, Central, and Southern Africa.

It added that Dangote Refinery shipped about 60,000 barrels per day in the last quarter of 2024 to Congo, Ghana, Angola, Cameroon, and others.