Interest for Trump’s $5m Golden Visa Dwindles

Astons has analysed global Google search trend data* for terms related to Golden Visas in the days and weeks following Trump’s announcement and found that while there was an initial flurry in search interest, this quickly dwindled. And even at its peak,  it never surpassed the interest garnered by the Golden Visa programmes offered by Spain and Greece.

In the 10 days immediately following Trump’s Gold Card announcement, the online search interest score for the term ‘US golden visa’ averaged out at 27.90. Meanwhile, the term ‘US gold card’ scored 24.10, while ‘Trump golden visa’ scored 22.20.

During the same time frame, search interest in European Golden Visas was significantly stronger. ‘Spain golden visa’ scored 38.90, while interest in ‘Greece golden visa’ was scored at 36.50.

However, after this initial 10 days following the announcement, interest in Trump’s offering rapidly decline, as during the subsequent 10-day period,  search interest in ‘US gold card’ fell by -82.6%, interest in ‘Trump golden visa’ fell by -76.1%, and interest in ‘US golden visa’ fell by -55.6%.

At the same time, interest in European golden visa programmes remained steadfast.

In fact, interest in ‘Greece golden visa’ increased by +1.1%, while interest in ‘Spain golden visa’ remained unchanged at 38.90.

Astons Business Development Director and Head of Astons Cyprus Office, Denis Kravchenko, commented:

“Donald Trump’s plan to introduce what is essentially a residency by investment program that, apparently, provides a quick path for citizenship to the US has understandably generated a surge in interest and speculation. But the $5m price tag is likely going to be far too high to result in a large enough level of uptake for it to reduce the US’s national debt as it is intended to do.

It is also possible that this new programme could become more popular than America’s existing EB-5 visa programme which already offers green cards to those who are willing to invest between $800,000–$1m into the US economy, so doubts around investors now being willing to pay a substantially higher price for residency are well-founded.

Should Trump decide to scrap the EB-5, one of the world’s oldest residency by investment programmes having been introduced by President George H. W. Bush under the Immigration Act of 1990, it will be all the more surprising given that 2024 saw 5,000 applications for the programme, marking an annual uplift of 85%.

It remains unclear whether Trump’s program will offer any substantial advantages—such as expedited processing – currently, the EB-5 path to a green card takes between one and ten years depending on nationality with the absence of stringent background checks—to motivate investors to commit more funds.

Trump may face further challenges due to there being other countries in the world that offer far more accessible programmes. Investors can, for example, qualify for Maltese citizenship through exceptional naturalisation for an investment of around 1 million euros, for which an investor can obtain citizenship to an EU member state in an average of 1.5 years without the need for permanent relocation.

Then there are the multitude of European Golden Visa programmes that are also far more budget-friendly than Trump’s new initiative. Hungary launched a new residency program in summer 2024, requiring a minimum investment of at least 250,000 euros,  and Portugal’s offer starts at a minimum investment of 500,000 euros.

However, it’s Greece’s Golden Visa opportunities that are proving most popular of all,

Despite the entry investment threshold recently being raised, it is still possible to obtain residency by purchasing property for just 250,000 euros. Somewhat ironically, it’s young Americans who are driving the recent surge in demand for Greek Golden Visas which, in 2024, set a record, issuing 17,194 visas (based on 11 months of data).”