January 2025 Inflation to Cool to 34.53%—Meristem

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation figures today, Monday, February 17, 2025.

There are plans by the agency to rebase the inflation by reorganising its parameters. This has been the reason the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has delayed its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting earlier scheduled for last month to this month.

In a note obtained by Business Post, Meristem said it expects the food inflation rate to cool to 39.24 per cent from 39.84 per cent and the core inflation to increase 29.67 per cent from 28.40 per cent.

Explaining the rationale behind its predictions, the company said while domestic inflationary pressures persisted in January 2025, price levels showed minimal escalation during the month.

The effects of the PMS subsidy removal had largely diminished, leading to stable fuel and transportation costs during the month, it noted.

Meristem said an improved supply of food items such as maize and soybeans, which began in December and continued into January, helped moderate the prices of these commodities.

“This trend was partly driven by the appreciation of the Naira during this period, which reduced the cost of importing these goods and boosted supply levels.

“Moreover, the stronger Naira eased import costs for other import-dependent items, further contributing to price stability across the economy.

“For context, the Naira appreciated by 0.91 per cent month-on-month in the official window, averaging N1,543.29/$1 compared to N1,557.33/$1 in December 2024,” it stated.

It, therefore, declared that, “We expect headline inflation to moderate slightly in January 2025, driven by the factors listed above.”