Lagos Green Line: How the $3 billion rail project will transform Marina to Lekki corridor 

The rapid growth of the city, paired with limited road capacity, means that daily commutes are a struggle for residents and businesses alike.

The result is long hours spent in traffic, compounded by frequent road repairs and a lack of reliable mass transit alternatives.

In response to this pressing need for a solution, the Lagos State Government has unveiled the alignment for the Green Line, a $3 billion, 70-kilometre metro rail project designed to alleviate pressure on the city’s road network.

The plan, revealed by the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA), aims to connect key areas from Marina to the Lekki Free Trade Zone, improving urban mobility and offering a much-needed alternative to Lagos’ congested highways.

LAMATA recently revealed the alignment for the 70-kilometre Green Line, featuring 17 stations. The project is set to enhance urban connectivity and ease transport pressure across Lagos, especially along the Lekki-Epe corridor.

In analyzing the proposed station placements along the Lagos Green Line, experts have raised concerns about sparse coverage in key areas, such as Victoria Island and the Lekki corridor, warning that the current spacing could undermine the line’s usefulness and long-term ridership potential.

“I understand the urge to save cost by routing the alignment along the creek, but this bypasses critical customers, which defeats the cost-saving motive,” he told Naijaonpoint.

Although increasing the station count from 17 to 29 would extend end-to-end travel time from 76 to 92 minutes and add $240–$360 million to the project’s estimated $3 billion cost, Playman maintained that the added accessibility and passenger distribution benefits are worth the trade-off.

“If we assume for simplicity that each station can generate 20,000 riders, a 17-station plan caps ridership at 340,000. Expanding to 29 stations raises that potential to 580,000,” he said.

Echoing similar concerns, Hannah Kates—a Lekki Peninsula I resident, Head of Open Data at Stears, and an urban planner who previously worked at the New York City Department of City Planning—told Naijaonpoint that the current routing through Victoria Island is quite limiting.

“The station’s location along the creek bypasses some of the busiest commercial and residential zones in the area. Most people will still need to take a bus or car from Civic Centre to get where they need to go, making the train less appealing,” she said.

Kates also flagged that the wide spacing between stations on the Lekki axis could discourage use of the line in an area with intense daily traffic.

“This is an important concern that could limit ridership,” she added.

Beyond station spacing, Playman also raised red flags regarding the operational capacity of the Green Line. According to him, designing the line for 8-car B-size trains—160 metres in length—limits its long-term capacity, especially since the Blue Line already uses longer 10-car configurations with 200-metre platforms.

He described the decision as “short-sighted,” likely aimed at reducing upfront construction costs. However, he warned that “going by the population density on that corridor and examples from other cities, 8-car B-size trains are going to be capacity limited.” 

He described the decision as “short-sighted,” likely aimed at reducing upfront construction costs. However, he warned that “going by the population density on that corridor and examples from other cities, 8-car B-size trains are going to be capacity limited.” 

He referenced planning missteps in Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where underestimating initial train capacities led to overcrowding and costly upgrades.

“It’s prudent to plan correctly to avoid spending more money in the future,” he said.

Playman suggested to LAMATA that instead of ending the Green Line at Marina, it should be extended as a continuation of the Blue Line, which already has a station there. He explained that terminal stations in city centers often lead to operational gridlocks and that dedicating additional space in Marina for a separate terminal could limit future high-capacity rail development.

Harmonizing the Green Line’s design with the Blue Line, he argued, would allow long-distance riders from Lekki to travel directly onto the Blue Line corridor without switching trains or worsening congestion at Marina.

The Lagos State Government aims to complete the 68-kilometre Green Line of the Lagos Rail Mass Transit (LRMT), stretching from Marina to the Lekki Free Zone, within five years, contingent on the availability of funds.

The 2025 Federal Budget proposal includes N146.14 billion as counterpart funding for the Green Line, managed by MOFI. With the federal budget increasing from N49.74 trillion to N54.9 trillion, this funding allocation could see a further rise.

A tripartite agreement was signed in September 2024 among Lagos State, MOFI, and China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) to design, finance, and operate the line.

Building the entire route of the Green Line in full is the right decision, but its success hinges on the Lagos State Government’s ability to secure the full $3 billion funding before construction begins.