More Nigerians expected to fall into poverty by 2027 – World Bank

This projection was detailed in the World Bank’s Africa Pulse report, unveiled during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.

The report highlights that sub-Saharan Africa continues to record the highest rates of extreme poverty globally, with a significant portion of the poor population concentrated in just a few countries.

As of 2024, around 80% of the estimated 695 million people living in extreme poverty worldwide were in sub-Saharan Africa.

In contrast, South Asia accounted for 8%, East Asia and the Pacific for 2%, the Middle East and North Africa for 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean for 3%.

Within sub-Saharan Africa, four countries alone were home to half of the region’s 560 million extremely poor people in 2024.

The report noted that non-resource-rich countries are making more progress in reducing poverty compared to their resource-rich counterparts.

In particular, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo — both categorized as resource-rich but fragile — are expected to see poverty levels rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027.

“Notably, poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries (including Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo) is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027 — making them the only group in the region with a rising poverty rate,” the report stated.

The World Bank emphasized that the combination of resource wealth and fragility or conflict typically results in higher poverty levels, with such countries seeing an average poverty rate of 46% in 2024 — 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich nations.

On a more positive note, the report found that non-resource-rich, non-fragile African countries have achieved the most significant reductions in poverty since 2000, closing the poverty gap with other similar economies by 2010.

The World Bank also highlighted that while most of Africa’s population and its highest poverty levels are in rural areas, rapid urbanisation could help reduce poverty — if the right conditions are in place.

Between 2010 and 2019, the report found that urbanisation played a larger role in poverty reduction than improvements within rural or urban communities themselves.

In 2020, only 41% of Africa’s population lived in urban areas. However, this number is expected to grow by over 238 million by 2035, surpassing the rural population.

“This rapid urban growth offers new opportunities for the rural poor to improve their livelihoods through migration,” the report noted.

The World Bank however cautioned that the success of this transition hinges on urban areas’ ability to provide sufficient infrastructure, essential services, and employment for the growing population.