The Nigerian naira continued its positive momentum on Monday, reaching a four-month high in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and posting gains in the parallel market. The local currency appreciated to ₦1,528.65 per dollar at the official window, up from ₦1,532/$ last Friday, while also strengthening to ₦1,545/$ in the parallel market, improving from ₦1,550/$ over the weekend.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed the naira gained ₦3.35 in the official market, narrowing the margin between both markets to ₦16.35 from ₦18 per dollar previously.
More significantly, the naira closed at ₦1,518 per dollar during Monday’s trading session, marking its strongest level since March 14, 2025, when it briefly traded at ₦1,517.93/$. The last time the currency traded below ₦1,520 was over four months ago, highlighting growing market confidence in Nigeria’s FX landscape.
This appreciation comes despite a 0.11% depreciation recorded in the previous week when the naira closed at ₦1,530.26/$.
Analysts at Anchoria Limited expect the naira to remain within a stable trading band of ₦1,515–₦1,535/$ this week. Their projection is anchored on increased FX liquidity, the CBN’s recent $50 million dollar sale, and the success of last week’s Open Market Operations (OMO) auction, which attracted significant foreign investment interest.
“These actions have helped ease demand pressures and boost market confidence, keeping volatility low,” Anchoria stated in a note.
Cowry Assets Management Limited echoed similar sentiments, forecasting further stability for the naira, driven by continued CBN interventions, growing traction of FX reforms, and consistent oil export revenues.
Despite recent pressure on the naira—stemming from rising dollar demand and constrained FX supply—the CBN has maintained a steady intervention strategy. Cowry noted that the previous week’s pullback in the naira had been reversed, with the parallel market now showing a ₦1,540/$ rate.
In the first half of 2025, FX analysts observed that while external shocks—including U.S. trade policy shifts and global geopolitical tensions—triggered significant capital outflows estimated at $22.83 billion, the CBN sold $4.72 billion in FX to manage volatility.
CardinalStone, in its mid-year outlook titled Charting the Sustainability Path, stressed that the interventions were not aimed at reinstating a fixed exchange rate regime, but rather to manage perceived distortions in a liberalised FX system.
“Despite underlying macro weaknesses, average monthly FX intervention by the CBN was $786.58 million—well below pre-COVID levels of $2.30 billion and post-COVID averages of $1.38 billion,” the firm noted.
CardinalStone further added that international observers now widely agree that the naira is trading near its fair value, supported by increased transparency in Nigeria’s FX framework.