The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that Nigeria must generate at least 27.3 million new formal jobs between 2025 and 2030 to maintain its unemployment rate at 4.3 per cent and prevent a looming employment crisis.
In its latest report titled “From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria”, the group revealed that this translates to an annual average of 4.55 million net new jobs, a target it described as both “ambitious and indispensable” for sustaining inclusive economic growth and social stability.
NESG noted, “Our estimates show that to maintain an unemployment rate at 4.3% from 2025 to 2030, Nigeria must create 27.3 million jobs, i.e. an annual average of 4.55 million net formal jobs. Achieving this will be crucial to absorbing new entrants into the labour market and gradually transitioning workers currently engaged in low-productivity, informal jobs.”
According to the NESG, key sectors expected to drive this job creation include manufacturing (especially agro-processing), construction, information and communications technology (ICT), and professional services. Together, these four sectors have the capacity to absorb millions of workers currently engaged in low-productivity informal activities.
“Collectively, they are expected to contribute to 35% (9.7 million) of new formal jobs, while manufacturing alone will account for 21% of new jobs created during the period,” NESG said.
The group stressed that Nigeria’s path to sustainable job creation requires addressing systemic productivity challenges and removing constraints that have historically weakened private sector growth. It emphasized that without urgent action, the economy could face rising unemployment, worsening poverty, and declining social cohesion.
To achieve this target, the NESG called for the immediate adoption of a Jobs and Productivity Agenda, which it described as a coordinated national framework designed to create decent employment, improve labour productivity, and unlock economic competitiveness.
“To create these jobs, Nigeria must address the problems of low productivity and weak private sector growth in a coordinated and sustained manner. More urgent than ever, Nigeria needs a Jobs and Productivity Agenda to create decent jobs and raise productivity across the economy. The success of this agenda will depend on stakeholder collaboration, robust data architecture, continuous monitoring and evaluation and, more importantly, a firm commitment by the government to implement key reforms,” NESG stated.
The NESG also noted that Nigeria’s labour market faces mounting pressure from a rapidly growing youth population, many of whom enter the job market annually without formal employment opportunities.
The group highlighted that the informal sector currently accounts for a large share of employment but contributes minimally to productivity growth or tax revenue.
More insights
The group urged the federal government to launch a National Skills Development Programme with emphasis on technical and vocational skills, digital and soft skills.
It also canvassed for the establishment of a National Productivity Fund to support the growth of firms and enhance productivity.