Nigeria is hoping to approach the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise the country’s crude oil production quota by 25 per cent.
Nigeria, an OPEC laggard, has not been able to hike output in recent years and has been limited to a quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.
However, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has said that this may soon changed on the back of expectations that output will be raised soon.
The national oil company is also targeting 2 million barrels per day from 2027, with plans to be included in the upcoming talks over updated country capacities, the chief executive of NNPC, Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari, said in a report by Argus Media.
Nigeria’s current crude quota is 1.5 million barrels per day, but Mr Ojulari said current production is slightly below that at around 1.4 million barrels per day.
He noted that including around 250,000 barrels per day of condensate, that takes current oil output to around 1.65 million barrels per day, just shy of the country’s oil production capacity. OPEC calculations exempt condensates.
Argus estimated Nigeria’s crude output at just shy of 1.6 million bpd in May, the latest month for which estimates are available, although that figure includes production of Nigerian light sweet Agbami, which Nigeria itself classifies as condensate, the report said.
By 2027, NNPC is targeting a capacity of around 2.4 million barrels per day, and production of 2 million barrels per day, Mr Ojulari said. Of this production, around 1.7 million barrels per day will be crude and the 300,000 barrels per day balance, condensate, Argus reported.
And within three years, the company is aiming for production of 3 million barrels per day, comprising crude output of 2.5 million barrels per day and condensate production of 500,000 barrels per day. Capacity will be around 3.5 million barrels per day, it added.
Nigeria’s plans come as the OPEC+ group embarks on a new campaign to update and refresh each member country’s maximum sustainable production capacity, which would then be used to determine new production baselines, or quotas, for members from which output targets for 2027 will be calculated.
“We believe that with the increased demand being created in-country, we are now in a better position to also seek from OPEC to increase our production quota,” Mr Ojulari said.
He also said Nigeria recently commissioned the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery while 500,000 barrels per day of modular refining capacity are at “different stages of progress.”
“So, you can imagine, over the next two years, we will be talking of (additional) refining capacity of around 1 million bpd of just Nigerian local consumption,” Argus quoted Mr Ojulari as saying.
Mr Ojulari said he will be lobbying for a 25 per cent increase in the production quota by 2027, and remains hopeful that this time Nigeria’s request will be granted.
“What I want to have by 2027 is 2 million barrels per day; that is what we will be asking,” he said. “What the outcome of that conversation will be will depend on how successful we are in our discussions and interactions. But that is what we are gunning for,” he said.