Nigeria’s road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has boiled down to one night of nerve, noise, and national tension.
The Super Eagles, third in Group C with 14 points, are still in with a chance, but only just.
Benin, surprisingly perched top with 17 points, have their destiny in their own hands. South Africa sit second on 15, and Rwanda lurk fourth. For Nigeria, the arithmetic is simple but cruel: beat Benin in Uyo and pray South Africa stumble against Rwanda.
But prayer alone won’t be enough. Coach Eric Chelle, the Malian tactician who has brought some structure and steel back to Nigeria’s play, must pull every tactical string, make every key decision count, and inspire belief.
Benin, coached by former Super Eagles boss Gernot Rohr, are fuelled by history; the chance to reach their first-ever World Cup. Nigeria, meanwhile, are driven by pride, pedigree, and the ghosts of qualification failures past.
Chelle knows one wrong call could send Nigeria spiralling into another dark night of national despair. Here are the five crucial decisions he must make ahead of Tuesday’s must-win encounter.
The Nwabali question: Trust or turn the page?
Stanley Nwabali has been one of Nigeria’s revelations since last year: confident, commanding, and composed at AFCON. But against Lesotho, he looked like a man haunted by his own gloves.
With Nigeria cruising 2–0, Nwabali spilled a routine corner, gifting Lesotho a lifeline. Later, he dropped another high ball at the feet of a grateful striker who, mercifully for Nigeria, couldn’t finish. Had that gone in, Nigeria’s hopes would already be gone.
Now, the whispers are loud: has Nwabali lost focus, or was it just an off day? Some fans, typically unforgiving, have even peddled bizarre rumours of match-fixing or sabotage; claims with zero evidence but enough smoke to cloud his confidence.
Chelle’s challenge is psychological as much as tactical. Does he keep faith in his number one or hand the gloves to Amas Obasogie or Adebayo Adeleye? Nwabali’s shot-stopping remains elite, but if his mind is still shaky, Nigeria could pay dearly. A frank assessment is essential. If he’s not mentally ready, it may be safer to sit him out.
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Troost-Ekong or Ajayi: Who guards the gates?
In defence, William Troost-Ekong brings experience and leadership, but against Benin’s pacey forwards, especially the bullish Steve Mounié, he may be a half-step too slow.
When the two sides met earlier in the qualifiers, Benin’s front line ran rings around Troost-Ekong. The Super Eagles captain reads the game well but is not built for chasing shadows.
Enter Semi Ajayi, a strong, no-nonsense defender who offers better positioning and aerial command. The problem? He’s only just returned from injury and hasn’t had a full match in weeks. Throwing him into a must-win game could be a big gamble.
Chelle’s best option might be to start Troost-Ekong but protect him with a deep-lying midfielder, perhaps Frank Onyeka, who has the legs to sweep danger zones. It’s a classic risk-versus-reward dilemma: leadership or legs?
Adams or Arokodare: Victor Osimhen’s strike-partner dilemma?
This is where things get interesting. Tolu Arokodare, tall, powerful, and fearless, has been one of Chelle’s pet projects.
The Malian gave him his debut and has built him into a trusted squad member. But when Arokodare started alongside Victor Osimhen against Lesotho, the combination was awkward.
Two similar profiles, same runs, same battles, same chaos. They even ended up challenging each other for the same headers. The attack looked like a wrestling match in the air.
Then came Akor Adams, the Sevilla forward who replaced Arokodare and instantly changed everything. His movement complemented Osimhen’s. When Osimhen went near post, Adams drifted back post. He scored a debut goal from an Osimhen assist and looked like he’d played with the Galatasaray man for years.
Chelle now faces his hardest call: sentiment or synergy. Arokodare has earned trust, but Adams and Osimhen work. The data and the eye test both point to Adams.
Who fills the Lookman void?
The suspension of Ademola Lookman is a thunderbolt for Nigeria. The Atalanta man has been a creative spark on the left wing; cutting inside, combining well, and drawing defenders out of shape.
Without him, Chelle must reshuffle his deck. Moses Simon, a natural left-winger, was pushed to the right against Lesotho but should now return to his preferred flank. That move solves one problem but creates another: who replaces the Paris FC on the right?
Samuel Chukwueze would be the obvious name, but the Fulham winger has barely kicked a ball this season. Terem Moffi and Akor Adams could also operate from wide areas, though both prefer central roles.
It may come down to fitness and desire. Chukwueze’s pace can stretch defences, but only if he’s sharp enough. Moffi brings power and unpredictability. Either way, Chelle must pick the player most willing to press, track back, and hustle because Benin will not stand still.
How to balancing boldness with control?
Finally, Chelle must decide on the overall approach. Nigeria can’t afford to sit back and hope for favours from Rwanda. The three-time African champions need goals, and early ones. But Benin, pragmatic under Rohr, love to counter.
The key may be to press with controlled aggression; maintaining possession but avoiding reckless full-back overlaps that leave the defence exposed. A midfield duo of Frank Onyeka and Alex Iwobi could provide balance: energy, creativity, and bite.
Chelle must also manage emotions. Nigeria’s last few qualifiers have been tense affairs, filled with missed chances and moments of madness. Calm heads will be as crucial as quick feet.
Benin smell history; Nigeria demand redemption. And standing between both is a quiet, calculating man named Eric Chelle, whose decisions in the next 90 minutes may define his legacy before it’s even fully begun.