Nigeria is undergoing a period of profound economic reform at a time when global power dynamics, energy markets, and technological shifts are reshaping the international order.
We spoke with Yasmin Kumi, founder of the Africa Foresight Group, who shares her perspective on the challenges and opportunities that will shape the country’s next phases.
Below are the excerpts of the interview:
Naijaonpoint: Nigeria has embarked on a series of reforms at a moment when global geopolitics and energy dynamics are rapidly evolving. In your view, how well-positioned is the country to leverage these reforms to enhance its regional influence?
Yasmin Kumi: Nigeria has certainly taken steps through its current reforms, but I am not convinced the country is well-positioned to translate them into regional influence. My reservations stem from three concerns. First, the reforms bear an uncomfortable resemblance to the structural adjustment era.
They are heavily weighed towards short- to medium-term economic stabilization, rather than long-term strategic repositioning. Structural adjustment in the past was itself a reaction to global economic shocks, but it failed to anchor Nigeria in a new global order. My concern is that history may repeat itself: the reforms respond to immediate hardship, but they lack a clear vision of how Nigeria will reposition within the shifting architecture of global power.
Second, the agenda is tied to the government’s Renewed Hope Plan, a five-year framework. But repositioning a nation within a changing world system cannot realistically be achieved in five years.
It demands a 20-year horizon, underpinned by unwavering commitment across administrations. Other countries, India in services outsourcing or Costa Rica in ecotourism, demonstrate how long-term strategies can fundamentally reshape a nation’s global standing.
Third, the reforms risk alienating the very citizens whose resilience will ultimately determine Nigeria’s trajectory. Power, after all, resides with the people. Today, the average Nigerian is preoccupied with survival, not national strategy.
What is missing is a compelling narrative: why these sacrifices are necessary, and what “green pastures” lie beyond them. Without that vision, the very kind that platforms like the FT Africa Summit are putting at the centre of debate, reforms will be seen only as hardship, not as a collective journey towards a stronger global role.
Naijaonpoint: So, you don’t see a connection between the reforms and the average Nigerian?
Yasmin Kumi: There is a connection, but it is not the right kind. Today, the average Nigerian is simply struggling to survive the immediate consequences of these changes, which have created significant economic hardship. What is missing is a unifying story, a vision that says: we are enduring this together because it will lead us to a better future.
People need to know what those “green pastures” look like. And to define that, you need more than a five-year plan; you need a 20-year national vision.
This matters because Nigeria is more than just one country. It is, in many ways, a symbol of Africa itself. Within its borders, you find the continent’s contradictions and its promise: enormous scale, immense resource wealth, dynamic entrepreneurship, but also fragmentation and conflict. Whatever direction Nigeria takes will shape how the world sees Africa.
However, what is missing right now is the canvas; the clear picture of how today’s reforms link to that 20-year aspiration. Without it, citizens experience only the pain of the present, not the purpose of the journey.
Naijaonpoint: With energy and critical minerals becoming increasingly central to global power dynamics, what unique opportunities does Nigeria have to position itself as a regional leader?
Naijaonpoint: With energy and critical minerals becoming increasingly central to global power dynamics, what unique opportunities does Nigeria have to position itself as a regional leader?
Yasmin Kumi: Nigeria has the opportunities, no question. But what we need are reforms of an entirely different magnitude. Think of India. Two decades ago, it deliberately charted a course to become the global hub for outsourcing. That single long-term decision reshaped its economy, created millions of jobs, and elevated incomes.
Or consider Costa Rica, a tiny nation of just five million people. In the mid-20th century, it dismantled its military and redirected spending into conservation, turning nearly a third of its territory into protected national parks. Today, it is a global pioneer of ecotourism. Nigeria, too, must dare to think at that scale.
The world is transitioning away from carbon. Why shouldn’t Nigeria aspire to become a net exporter of solar energy or a continental hub for electric vehicles? These are not impossible dreams, but they require us to escape the old narrative of the “resource curse,” where natural wealth enriches a few and leaves the nation underdeveloped.
Naijaonpoint: Considering these dynamics, what role should the private sector play, particularly given your background?
Yasmin Kumi: I often joke that people assume I’m Nigerian, I’m not, but perhaps that reflects how deeply invested I feel in the country. Nigeria is the anchor of Africa. What happens here will shape the continent’s trajectory, which is why I believe so strongly in staying closely engaged.
When it comes to business, I think in continental terms. Nigeria is a large part of that story, but the real challenge is the absence of African business unity. Next month, at a conference we are hosting, set to be opened by the President of Ghana, we will call for just that: a stronger, pan-African coalition of businesses working together.
Why? Because competing globally as a single firm is immensely difficult. Africa has shown flashes of what is possible, but one success story is not enough. Where are the dozens of other giants of industry we should be seeing?
These are the kinds of questions we will also be engaging with at the FT Africa Summit. If homegrown African businesses aligned their commercial ambitions with a shared commitment to strengthening local economies and collaborated instead of working in silos, we would see far more job creation, innovation, and stability in our currencies.
We often talk about the African Union, or about deepening the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area). However, beyond rhetoric, the real question is: how can African businesses fundamentally rethink collaboration? If they do, they will not just survive, they will define Africa’s role in the global economy.
Naijaonpoint: At the ground level, how are Nigeria’s current reforms affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and startups? And in your view, how can reforms be structured to avoid stifling innovation?
Yasmin Kumi: To be candid, the reforms as they stand remind me of the structural adjustment era, and those policies never placed SMEs or startups at the centre. Their priority was fiscal stability and strengthening the state’s balance sheet. If that is once again the true objective, then we should be transparent about it, rather than suggesting that the reforms are designed to nurture smaller businesses.
The reality is that the climate for SMEs and startups has become more challenging. It is harder to operate, and we have already seen large technology companies exiting Nigeria because they find the environment unworkable. If firms of that scale cannot adapt, it is unsurprising that smaller players are struggling.
Yet, even in adversity, opportunity exists. Nigerian startups have developed some of the most innovative and resilient business models on the continent. The challenge is that many of them remain anchored in Nigeria because the domestic market is so vast and attractive. But perhaps this moment is the catalyst for change.
Expanding into smaller neighboring markets, which may initially seem less appealing, could diversify revenue streams, open access to hard-currency income, and ultimately strengthen resilience.
In other words, while the current reforms create headwinds, they may also push Nigerian startups to think beyond their home market and, in doing so, unlock continental opportunities that will define the next stage of their growth.
Naijaonpoint: Dangote Industries has recently expanded into food exports, including shipments to the United States. How significant is this development for Nigeria’s global economic positioning?
Yasmin Kumi: It is a landmark achievement not just for Dangote, but for Nigeria’s entrepreneurial story. It demonstrates that Nigerian businesses can not only dominate domestic markets but also compete credibly on international platforms. That kind of visibility matters in shifting global perceptions of Nigeria’s economic potential.
But the broader question remains: how do we multiply this success? Dangote is an extraordinary case study, but he cannot stand alone. For Nigeria to reposition itself globally, we need dozens more stories of these scale companies able to break into international markets, build globally competitive brands, and prove that Africa’s business champions can hold their own on the world stage.
Naijaonpoint: Nigeria has announced ambitious renewable energy and net-zero commitments. Yet many businesses, especially SMEs, still struggle with basic energy access. How can reforms be designed to deliver tangible benefits for local producers and investors?
Yasmin Kumi: It comes back to the question of long-term vision. A five-year plan is simply inadequate for a problem of this scale. Nigeria’s chronic electricity deficit has crippled the economy for decades, holding back not only business growth but also education, healthcare, and broader national development. The damage is systemic, and short-term fixes will not resolve it. What is needed is a bold, multi-decade strategy with clear targets and continuity.
For me, the most striking opportunity lies in solar power. Consider Egypt, which is now exporting solar energy to Southern Europe via an undersea cable. That is the kind of ambition Africa should be known for, turning abundant sunshine into a competitive export industry. Nigeria could lead that movement.
Unfortunately, the conversation is too often reduced to cost. “Solar is too expensive; installation is prohibitive.” But why aren’t we building national partnerships with countries that already have research and development expertise, so that within ten years, we can drive costs down for an entire nation? That is how solar becomes transformative.
Because right now, clean energy is treated as a “nice-to-have”, some panels on a factory roof or a bank branch, mainly for appearances. The only way it will truly make sense for Nigeria is if clean energy becomes commercially viable, more profitable than the alternatives.
Naijaonpoint: The Mission 300 initiative, backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, aims to electrify 300 million Africans by 2030. How realistic is this ambition?