The churning wheels of Nigeria’s political machinery have once again set the stage for a familiar drama—one marked by dismissive arrogance on the part of those in power, and the fractured, often ideologically-shallow manoeuvrings of those seeking it. The recent morphing of leading opposition figures into the African Democratic Congress (ADC), with the aspiration of forging a broad coalition to challenge President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections, has been met with a reaction from the government and the APC that is strikingly reminiscent of past mistakes. The echoes of history are unmistakable: it was just over a decade ago that the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and President Goodluck Jonathan scoffed at the formation of the APC, only to be swept aside by the very platform they dismissed with a wave of the hand.
Yet, beyond the surface drama lies a deeper malaise: the persistent absence of ideological fidelity in Nigeria’s politics, a crisis of confidence in the sincerity of political leadership, and a growing sense of democratic backsliding. The ongoing crises within both the PDP and the APC, the ruthlessness with which opposition voices are treated, the constriction of the democratic and civic space, and the pervasive lethargy of the electorate all raise troubling questions about the direction of Nigeria’s democracy.
There is a particular pattern that has come to define the attitude of Nigeria’s ruling parties when confronted with the stirrings of opposition unity. The APC and the government’s reaction to the ADC-led coalition effort has, as expected, been one of casual disdain. Spokespersons and sympathizers of the government have openly questioned the seriousness and viability of any coalition, painting it as yet another opportunistic gathering of “spent” or “disgruntled” politicians, lacking both structure and a coherent agenda. This dismissiveness is not merely rhetorical; it is rooted in the belief that the machinery of state power—patronage, incumbency, and the atomization of opposition ranks—renders any challenge futile.
But history has a way of humbling those who underestimate the energy that can coalesce around a potent opposition platform, especially in moments of national discontent. The PDP’s haughty response to the emergence of the APC in 2014 is a cautionary tale. Back then, Jonathan and his inner circle saw the cobbling together of disparate opposition elements as little more than a political circus, not realizing they were midwifing their own eventual political eclipse.
Whether the new coalition can avoid the fate of its predecessors, or whether the APC will be haunted by its current condescension, remains to be seen. But the lesson is clear – in politics, nothing is permanent, and the seeds of today’s arrogance may well blossom into tomorrow’s downfall.
Perhaps the greatest challenge confronting any opposition platform in Nigeria is the endemic absence of ideological commitment. Party switches are commonplace, alliances form and dissolve not on the basis of shared values or policy convictions, but out of mutual convenience and the promise of access to power. The morphing of politicians from PDP, APC, and other platforms into the ADC is the latest iteration of a well-worn playbook – form a “grand coalition” when the arithmetic of electoral defeat becomes apparent, with little regard for ideological coherence.
This lack of ideological fidelity undermines public confidence in the sincerity and durability of such coalitions. When leaders are seen as ideological mercenaries, ready to trade one party for another at the drop of a hat, it breeds cynicism among the electorate. For many Nigerians, the question is no longer whether a new coalition can win power, but whether any coalition can articulate a genuinely transformative vision for the country—a vision rooted in principles, not just expediency.
The crisis of ideology is compounded by the internal convulsions wracking Nigeria’s two main parties. The PDP continues to suffer from unending factionalism, leadership tussles, and a loss of moral authority. Its inability to present a united front has left it vulnerable to both internal defection and external irrelevance. Meanwhile, the APC, despite its hold on power, faces a looming implosion. Beneath the surface, there are tensions between old guard and new, between regional blocs, and between those who feel marginalized by the current administration.
These crises threaten to further erode the public’s faith in the party system. When parties lack internal democracy, discipline, and vision, the result is an endless game of musical chairs, with career politicians hopping from one platform to another in pursuit of personal advantage. The electorate, in turn, retreats into apathy, seeing little to distinguish one party’s promises or personalities from another’s.
Perhaps most disturbing is the growing trend toward the constriction of democratic and civic space. Criticism—whether from political opponents, civil society actors, or the media—is increasingly met with hostility, intimidation, or outright repression. The ruthlessness with which the presidency treats opposition, both within and outside the APC itself, sends a chilling message to those who would dare challenge the status quo.
Laws and regulations intended to stifle dissent have proliferated, from restrictions on protests to the harassment of journalists and activists. The judiciary, once seen as a possible bulwark against executive overreach, now finds itself the subject of sustained pressure and politicization. This climate of fear undermines the very idea of a vibrant democracy, where contestation and criticism are not just tolerated but encouraged.
Compounding all these problems is a pervasive sense of lethargy among voters. Years of broken promises, failed coalitions, and cynical politicking have left many Nigerians disillusioned and disengaged. Voter turnout has declined steadily over successive election cycles, and faith in the possibility of meaningful change through the ballot box has been eroded. This apathy plays into the hands of those who benefit from the status quo, reinforcing a vicious cycle of low accountability and low expectations.
Yet, history suggests that apathy can quickly give way to anger and action when the right combination of leadership, vision, and opportunity presents itself. The challenge for any coalition seeking to unseat an entrenched incumbent is not just to win over the political elite, but to inspire hope among ordinary people—a hope grounded in a vision of politics as service, not self-interest.
All of these factors—dismissiveness by those in power, the lack of ideological substance, internal party crises, shrinking civic space, and voter apathy—point to a troubling pattern of democratic backsliding in Nigeria. The rituals of democracy remain – elections are held, parties compete, and new coalitions are formed. But the substance—the open contestation of ideas, the accountability of leaders, the rule of law, the vibrancy of civic life—is ebbing away.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The drama unfolding around opposition coalitions, party crises, and the government’s dismissive posture is more than mere political theatre—it is a test of the country’s democratic resilience. History warns against arrogance and cynicism, both in government and opposition. The future belongs to those willing to build, not just alliances, but enduring institutions rooted in principle and public trust. Until then, the journey toward genuine democracy remains unfinished, and the shadows of past mistakes continue to loom over the present.