Nigeria’s cocoa output is projected to fall by 11 per cent to 305,000 tons in the 2025-2026 harvest season, Bloomberg reported on Monday.
Cocoa is one of Nigeria’s agricultural products, with the country ranked among the top five producers in the world.
The country’s output could be down by a difference of 39,000 tons from a projected 344,000 tons in the current season, which ends in September.
According to the publication, this development is part of a wider problem among West African producers which will see the region head into another disappointing harvest.
Bloomberg said despite favourable weather in previous seasons, structural constraints including aging cocoa trees and crop diseases may continue to limit output and keep prices high.
According to Mr Mufutau Abolarinwa, the head of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria, changing weather patterns have delayed key rainfall and strong winds have damaged fresh flowers and young cherelles.
He added that these have reduced the number of pods that could have contributed to output.
According to Bloomberg, while the situation is bleaker for Nigeria, it is comparatively better for bigger producers like Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.
In Cote d’Ivoire, the biggest producer, is projected to collect 1.4 million tons during the main crop harvest between October and March, which is about in line with the expected total for this season’s main crop.
In neighboring Ghana, where the harvest begins this month, the output is projected at 620,000 tons, well below the country’s historical peak.
Cameroon is an anomaly with production expected to rise 12 per cent to 300,000 tons, according to the country’s Cocoa and Coffee Interprofessional Council.
The result means global cocoa supply will likely stay tight and prices will rise, even as weaker demand offers some relief following an estimated 40,000-ton shortfall this year.
According to analysts, JPMorgan forecasts prices staying above $6,000 a ton, while Citi expects $7,000 in the next year , which more than double the long-term norm.