Nigeria’s Cooling Inflation May Fuel Further Interest Rate Pause

On Monday, Nigeria’s annual inflation eased for a second straight month after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) overhauled the index for the first time in 16 years in January 2025.

The move was carried out to better reflect the inflation pressures facing households in Africa’s most-populous nation with the base year changed from 2009 to 2024.

According to the NBS, consumer prices rose 23.18 per cent in February by 8.52 per cent from the 31.70 per cent achieved in January 2024.

In the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the NBS said last month, the headline inflation slowed due to decline in the average prices of food items like yam tuber, potatoes, soya beans, flour of maize/cornmeal, cassava, bambara beans (dried), etc compared with the prices in the first month of this year.

Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency. This is slower compared to expected outcomes.

However, with further moderation, this could spur policymakers at the apex bank to pause rate hikes for yet another cycle.

The President Bola Tinubu administration is targeting a 15 per cent inflation level.

At its last meeting in February, the MPC held all rates across board with the headline monetary policy rate (MPR) retained at 27.50 per cent.

According to the Governor of the CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the asymmetric corridor was retained around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) at 50.00 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent. Also, the MPC retained the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.

The CBN had hiked interest rates by 875 basis points in the last year as Mr Cardoso favoured inflation targeting tools to fix skyrocketing cost of prices.

Market analysts noted that subsequent ease inflation in March and April could lead to even cuts but argued that pausing the rate will offer succour to businesses who have lamented the consistent hiking on their operations.