Nigeria’s economic future currently hangs in the balance as the Nigerian Economic Summit Group warns that the next 18 months will determine whether the country consolidates its hard-won stabilisation gains or slides back into a cycle of inflation, currency weakness, and fiscal stress.
In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the group describes a stark choice where disciplined policy and structural reforms could lift GDP growth to 5.5 percent, stabilise the naira near N1,480 per dollar, and keep inflation in check.
Conversely, policy slippage could reverse these gains, potentially pushing inflation back toward 25 percent, weakening the naira beyond N1,650, and widening fiscal deficits. This difference is not abstract because it hinges entirely on government action during this critical window.
While stabilisation reforms throughout 2024 and 2025, including exchange rate unification, fuel subsidy removal, and tighter monetary policy, have restored some macroeconomic balance, the group warns that these gains remain fragile.
Foreign reserves have climbed to a seven-year high of $45.5 billion, inflation has eased significantly to 14.5 percent from its 2024 peak, and the naira has found relative stability at approximately N1,504.9.
However, underlying structural weaknesses in power, security, and manufacturing continue to act as a drag on broad-based growth.
The report stresses that stabilisation alone does not equal growth. Manufacturing expanded by only 1.5 percent in 2025, and non-oil productive sectors continue to lag, leaving the economy vulnerable if reforms stall.
The group labels a potential downward trajectory as a suboptimal pathway, which could undo years of hard-won credibility with investors and global markets.
For Nigeria’s policymakers and investors, the message is urgent as the next 18 months are a race to solidify this recovery or risk a return to macroeconomic uncertainty.