Nigeria’s Oil Production Drops to 1.40mb/d in March

This drop means Nigeria has now produced below its OPEC target for the second consecutive month and far below its 2.06 million targets contained in the 2025 national budget.

This decline could be attributed to attacks on pipelines in Rivers State that led to the declaration of state of emergency and the suspension of democracy in the oil-rich state by President Bola Tinubu.

Last month, Mr Tinubu announced the suspension of Governor Siminilayi Fubara and the State House of Assembly over political crisis in the state. This occurred after an oil facility in the state was attacked. He then appointed a retired military officer, Mr Ibokette Ibas as the sole administrator of Rivers State.

Despite the decline, Nigeria remains the largest oil producer in Africa, surpassing Algeria and Congo, which produce 909,000 barrels per day and 263,000 barrels per day, respectively.

However, according to data sourced from secondary sources, OPEC said Nigeria produced 1.51 million barrels per day in March as against 1.54 million barrels per day in February.

OPEC’s report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 barrels per day to 41.02 million barrels per day due in part to reductions by Nigeria and Iraq.

“Total DoC crude oil production averaged 41.02 mb/d in March 2025, which is 37 tb/d lower, m-o-m,” OPEC said.

On April 12, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said the country’s oil production decreased to 1,400,783 barrels per day in March.

Although oil output dropped in March, NUPRC said the average crude oil production is 93 per cent of the 1.5 million barrels per day quota set for Nigeria by OPEC.

NUPRC adds condensates to its estimates, which are exempted by OPEC in its calculations.

On April 4, the OPEC and its allies decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May — amid declining oil prices.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday for the first time since December, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the United States.

OPEC forecasts that world oil demand would rise by 1.30 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026. Both forecasts are down 150,000 barrels per day from last month’s figures.

US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs as well as a plan for higher output by OPEC+ have put downward pressure on oil prices this month and raised concern about economic growth.

In its monthly report report, OPEC lowered its world economic growth forecast this year to 3.0 per cent from 3.1 per cent and reduced next year’s to 3.1 per cent from 3.2 per cent.

Last month, OPEC said trade concerns would contribute to volatility but had kept forecasts steady, saying the global economy would adjust. However, that appears to have changed with recent developments.