Northern rift is reportedly deepening as APC faces defections and criticism over Tinubu’s leadership amid rising hunger and hardship.
NaijaOnPoint Nigeria reports that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is showing signs of deepening cracks as defections by influential northern politicians and sharp criticism from party heavyweights fuel speculation of a looming repeat of the “Jonathan treatment” in the 2027 general elections.
In a major political upset, Senator Kabiru Marafa, former lawmaker representing Zamfara Central and a one-time coordinator of President Bola Tinubu’s campaign in the state, announced his resignation from the APC along with his entire political structure spread across Zamfara’s 147 wards.
In a hard-hitting communique, Marafa accused the Tinubu-led administration of “sustained injustice, mistrust, marginalisation and deliberate neglect of Zamfara State and its people.” His supporters highlighted worsening insecurity in the state, pointing to figures showing Zamfara accounted for 1,203 of Nigeria’s 4,722 kidnappings in 2024. Within one week alone, they noted, 25 villages were attacked, leaving 145 abducted and 21 dead.
Despite the scale of the crisis, they alleged, federal relief efforts had bypassed Zamfara while being channeled elsewhere.
The defections in Zamfara come on the heels of another wave of exits in Jigawa State, where 289 APC members decamped to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Sakwaya Ward, Dutse Local Government Area. PDP’s deputy state chairman, Umar Danjani, described the development as “a significant boost” to the party’s fortunes ahead of 2027.
Echoes of 2015
The cracks in APC appear to validate warnings by Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna governor and now a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Before leaving the APC, El-Rufai cautioned that Tinubu risked alienating the North in ways reminiscent of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s downfall in 2015.
In a fiery essay titled “2027: South West, Tinubu’s Supporters Playing with Fire – Part 1”, El-Rufai wrote:
“Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnesses to how the relationship between the North and President Bola Tinubu, or rather his administration, is quickly deteriorating, driven by the words and conduct of, unfortunately, many from the president’s geopolitical zone and tribe… The North remains the kingmaker in Nigerian politics. Any politician or political party that plays with that reality might pay a steep political price for it.”
Since joining the ADC, El-Rufai has doubled down, vowing that the North “will go to any length” to prevent Tinubu’s re-election.
Similarly, Senator Ali Ndume, former Senate Chief Whip, drew parallels to Jonathan’s defeat, warning on Channels Television’s Politics Today that Tinubu could face the same fate.
“Tinubu could be given the Jonathan treatment,” Ndume said, arguing that worsening economic hardship and a coterie of “unrealistic” aides around the president were damaging his image.
“I still believe the government is more or less dominated by kleptocrats and even kakistocrats,” he added.
Analysts Warn of Implosion
Political observers caution that the defections are more than symbolic.
“This is not just an individual leaving; it is an entire political structure across Zamfara State,” said Suleiman Bankole, Political Science lecturer. “In the North-West, grassroots mobilisation is everything. Losing a structure of that magnitude, coupled with insecurity concerns, exposes a deeper problem of disillusionment among APC supporters.”
Lagos-based public affairs commentator, Lawal Ogunniyi, described Ndume’s criticisms as reflective of “internal frustrations” within APC itself.
“When sitting APC lawmakers begin to openly talk about kleptocrats and kakistocrats around the president, it shows discontent is not only external but internal. This is how ruling parties begin to fracture from within,” he noted.
Ogunniyi warned that worsening economic hardship could become the ruling party’s undoing:
“If the average Nigerian does not feel relief in the next two years, no amount of endorsements will save APC at the ballot.”
APC Silent
When contacted, APC’s national publicity secretary, Felix Morka, declined to comment on the defections and rising criticism of the Tinubu administration.
For now, however, the cracks in APC particularly in its northern base are raising concerns that the ruling party could be walking the same path that unseated the PDP in 2015.