Oil prices rose on Monday amid worries that Iran’s exports could decline as the sanctioned member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cracked down on anti-government demonstrations.
Brent futures increased by 53 cents or 0.8 per cent to $63.87 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 38 cents or 0.6 per cent to $59.50 per barrel.
Iran said it was communicating with the US government as President Donald Trump weighed responses to a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, among the stiffest challenges to clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
On Sunday, the US president said officials may meet Iranian officials. He also threatened possible military action over lethal violence against protesters.
Iran has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, with around 9 per cent of the global total, coming only behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. It also has the second-largest proven natural gas reserves, with 17 per cent of the global share, and is the third-largest crude producer and fourth-largest exporter within OPEC.
In recent months, Iran has produced record levels of oil, even in the face of US sanctions on its energy exports and the bombings conducted by Israel on its capital.
Despite the ongoing sanctions, Iran has gradually built up its output once again, from around 2.9 million barrels per day in 2019 to between 3.2 and 4 million barrels per day in 2024, depending on estimates.
Capping gains were expectations that supplies could rise from Venezuela, another sanctioned member of OPEC as it is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro.
President Trump said last week the government in the South American country was set to hand over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US.
Reuters reported that oil companies have been racing to find tankers and prepare operations to ship the crude safely.
Investors are also watching the risk of disruptions in supply in two other OPEC allies – Russia and Azerbaijan – as Ukraine’s attacks have targeted Russian energy facilities while the country faces prospects of tougher US sanctions. In Azerbaijan oil exports dropped to 23.1 million tonnes in 2025 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2024.
Market players are also looking at developments with US interest rates and the Federal Reserve after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into the head of the US central bank, Mr Jerome Powell.
The Federal Reserve chair called the move a “pretext” to influence interest rates, a point that the US president has always hammered upon.
Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand by reducing borrowing costs, but could hinder the central bank’s efforts to control inflation.